Updating Message 32462762
(1) Did …
(1-a) Added to long SBGL finance.yahoo.com @ 9.517
The thing about Pd is that the beast can certainly go to any number it wants to go because as the regulators reckon how clean exhaust air should be, and for many cities cleaner than the ambient air, so far the way forward is to increase PGM loading. Given limited supply flexibility (no flexibility) and constrained substitution ways, only one way for the equation to balance in the short run.
An industry has reconstituted itself from formerly stealing Pt to now pilfering Pd dailymail.co.uk “Gone in 60 seconds! Shocking moment thieves jack up a car in the street before removing its catalytic converter in less than a minute” – the article gives a good read on the economics of the road entrepreneurs.
Yes, I can hold out forever on the short Pd (metal) trade, as long as my long SBGL (mining) trade remains opportune.
As matters now stand, I am biased towards long SBGL going up at the cost of losing on short PALL position by Pd also going up. Just wondering when PPLT would start doing its lifting.
It is a complicated set of simultaneous equations, but dollar for dollar, the SBGL is an ultra-super leveraged mining position where every dollar rise goes straight to taxes and bottom line.
platinum.matthey.com
On October 28
- Pt @ 933
- Pd @ 1,788
- SBGL @ 7.09
Today
- Pt @ 934 (cannot accuse Pt of being unstable :0)
- Pd @ 2,003, up 12%
- SBGL @ 9.50, 34% (how did I miss that one?!)
Like the profile of SBGL, its geographic footprint, metals repertoire, and mining leverage. Of course, unlike metals, it has a management and requires cash flow. Am guessing the three, Pt, Pd, and SBGL, play well together.
Mathematically, the relative weighting of short Pd, long Pt, and long SBGL is ~
- Pt @ +1 (in value)
- Pd @ -2 (in value, albeit same number of ounces as Pt)
- SBGL equity @ +1.5
- SBGL put options @ -2 (in value of SBGL obligated to buy until 17 April 2020)
- SBGL put options actual value @ +0.16
In effect my Pt & SBGL long positions both together are financed by shorting Pd; with the options potentially a by-the-way cloud-ATM mining effort. Feels almost illegal.
(2) Ideas
Perhaps the thing to at some juncture do is to use gold as a funding currency and buy gold and silver miner ETFs. Must dwell.
(3) Goings on
Whilst on call this morning I watched the fat Jack debug a communication issue. Between two iPads to make the Call of Duty Modern Combat again work. Good stuff.
(4) Positions now at ...
(4-a) Long (forever) HKEX finance.yahoo.com at all sorts of prices and taking in dividends (meaning position at loss state) at dividend adjusted cost basis of HK$ 282 (ouch)
(4-b) Long paper gold since forever, cost basis ~$1,337 per troy ounce
(4-c) Palladium against platinum
- Short Palladium PALL finance.yahoo.com @ 169.01
- Long Platinum PPLT finance.yahoo.com @ 86.86
- Short PALL again finance.yahoo.com @ 168.14
- Long PPLT again finance.yahoo.com @ 88.09
- Long PPLT finance.yahoo.com @ 85.875
- Short PALL finance.yahoo.com @ 172.90
(4-d) Long KL finance.yahoo.com @ 41.01
(4-e) Short KL finance.yahoo.com Jan 17 ’20 Put 40 @ 1.62
(4-f) Short KL finance.yahoo.com Apr 17 ’20 Put 40 @ 3.55
(4-g) Short KL finance.yahoo.com Apr 17 ’20 Call 45 @ 2.71
(4-h) Short FNV finance.yahoo.com Jan 17 ’20 Put 95 @ 1.47
(4-i) Short GDXJ finance.yahoo.com Jan 17 ’20 Put 39 @ 1.41
(4-j) Long
SBGL finance.yahoo.com @ 8.33
SBGL finance.yahoo.com @ 9.517
(4-k) Short SBGL finance.yahoo.com Apr 17 ’20 Put 7.50 @ 0.70
(4-l) Short SBGL finance.yahoo.com Apr 17 ’20 Call 10 @ 0.57
(4-m) Long AUY finance.yahoo.com @ 3.72
(4-n) Short AUY finance.yahoo.com Apr 17 ’20 Put 3.50 @ 0.34
(4-o) Short AUY finance.yahoo.com Apr 17 '20 Call 4 @ 0.28
(4-p) Short BA finance.yahoo.com Dec 20 ’19 Put 320 @ 1.93
(4-q) Long BA finance.yahoo.com Dec 20 ’19 Put 300 @ 0.33
(4-r) Short AMAT finance.yahoo.com Feb 21 '20 Put 60 @ 2.89 (under water already by a sliver already, but no matter, for options allow some give & take)
(4-s) Short QQQ finance.yahoo.com Feb 21 '20 Put 200 @ 2.34
(4-t) Long QQQ finance.yahoo.com Feb 21 '20 Put 187 @ 0.94
(4-u) Short VET finance.yahoo.com June 19 ’20 Put 12.5 @ 0.97 |
