Randy, Not me. I'm with the Morgan Stanley analyst who today downgraded UMG and three other cable companies. They are overvalued (about $1500 to $2000 per customer) and could get killed by the local broadcasters during the 1999 to 2002 time period. The broadcasters are setting up plans to deliver HDTV and SDTV in every metro area, many on a "cooperative" basis.
For example, in Atlanta, they are working out plans to offer 50 channels of SDTV (and lesser number of HDTV channels during peak-viewing hours) mostly free of charge to the consumer (if they collect fees, the Feds get some percent or fixed fee not yet determined by the FCC). All the local consumer will need is a digital converter (or HDTV/SDTV set) and antenna to get the VSB transmission signal. They might even partner with BellSouth to receive additional digital programming via MMDS (with Zenith's STBs) or go with a DBS company to provide the same.
The cost for cable to upgrade to digital will be humongous. They'll need HFC, costly digital cable modems, upgraded delivery systems and STBs.
Zenith remains the top of my list as the company most likely to benefit from the transition to digital TV. The broadcasters already are clamoring for Zenith and other CE companies to manufacture affordable HDTV and SDTV sets along with digital converters. When they start their digital broadcasts, they need digitally-equipped viewers. Also, Zenith's STBs will be the center of terresteial, MMDS and satellite digital delivery by Americast and others.
Where Intel and Microsoft fit in, I'm not sure. It's possible that they'll develop a convergence model (using Zenith's STBs?) which the broadcasters can add to their TV programming. For example, one or more local broadcasters in a metro area could use up to half of their assigned digital band for Internet and other data usage.
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