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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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pocotrader
To: Thomas A Watson who wrote (1188926)12/29/2019 12:20:57 PM
From: Wharf Rat1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 1570083
 
you must avoid all science on the internet.
You certainly do.

" a 1994 Naomi Oreskes et. al. paper"
Here's the 2018 update of models. This will be updated in a few months; 2019 is second warmest.
Message 32413001

Hansen et al (1981)



Original discussion (figure courtesy of Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Hansen et al. (1981)). Observations are the GISTEMP LOTI annual figures and 10 year mean. Last updated: 7 Feb 2019.

Hansen et al (1988)



Original discussion (2007), Last discussion (2018). Scenarios from Hansen et al. (1988). Observations are the GISTEMP LOTI annual figures. Trends from 1984: GISTEMP: 0.19ºC/dec, Scenarios A, B, C: 0.33, 0.28, 0.15ºC respectively (all 95% CI ~±0.03). Last updated: 7 Feb 2019.



CMIP5 (circa 2011)



Last discussion (2015). Model spread is the 95% envelope of true global mean surface temperature anomalies from all CMIP5 historical simulations (using the RCP4.5 projection post-2005). Forcing adjustment is updated from Schmidt et al. (2014). Observations are the standard quasi-global estimates of anomalies with no adjustment for spatial coverage or the use of SST instead of SAT over the open ocean. Last updated 7 Feb 2019.
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