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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: ed who wrote (14763)1/24/1998 3:10:00 AM
From: Obewon  Read Replies (4) of 97611
 
Anybody who wants to talk COMPAQ vice politics please answer the following question: How will CPQ do this quarter?

I have a couple of thoughts (well only one actually related to CPQ).

Per its press release, CPQ has not been able to take advantage of recent component price drops because of long term supply contracts which apparently only ended in mid-to-late December. Does anyone (hpeace???) know how long CPQ signs these contracts for? This is critical to determine the extent of cost savings per computer CPQ will see in this quarter. For example, if computer component parts have dropped 20% (not to unreasonable for the last six months), CPQ has been locked into the higher component prices, and computer prices have fallen 20% in the same period, them it would be logical for CPQ's margins and earnings to decrease. However, we actually saw them increase during this period. That leads me to conclude one of two possible scenarios:

1) CPQ numbers and statements are false and they managed to fool their auditors and the public.
2) CPQ has achieved phenominal productivity and economies of scale gains. (My personal choice)

Using my scenario, CPQ should see a 20% drop in cost of product in the current quarter. The key to this is that this 20% drop in costs should equal a 20% rise in gross profit which should fall directly to the bottom line (meaning that CPQ's net margins have the potential to
perform a step increase to near 45%).

This of course assumes that the current pricing environment stays relatively stable (meaning that computer prices fall no faster than component prices).

Anyone else want to point out the flaws in my argument?

OB
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