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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues
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To: John Mansfield who wrote (943)1/24/1998 4:12:00 AM
From: John Mansfield  Read Replies (1) of 9818
 
C.S.Y2K - 'CAA (UK's FAA equivalent) also in trouble?'

Thanks to Harlan Smith.

The following was on the back of my mind for some time now:

'One good contingency plan would be to focus on enhancements to Internet capabilities so that electronic conferences and communications can substitute for business travel.'

Is this realistic? I do think that with high-bandwidth communication up to the house door, video conferencing could really replace lots of business travelling. Think of internet over the Cable; ADSL etc.

This might be a lasting change on the way people work/commute etc after let's say 2002.

Any thoughts?

John

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> telegraph.co.uk:80/et?ac=000169077506927&rtmo=Qzk9QOHR&atmo=99

I found this paragraph quite interesting.

[snip]
"We can expect several capacity-critical systems to fail every day. For many months we might have only a third to a half as many flights as we have at present," he said. "Even assuming these systems are all fixed on time - a big if - then by March 2000 we will be depending on over 200 systems which have been running for a thousand odd hours," he said. "The time taken for complex systems to fail is always less than the time spent testing them."
snip]

"capacity critical" is an interesting term. That can probably be used
throughout the Y2K world. It seems to me that.

"capacity critical" -> "slowing of economy" -> "recession"

But, what is not said is that businesses will likely slow down to the point where profit becomes strongly negative and that is part of the concern about disaster.

I also found interesting: "The time taken for complex systems to fail is
always less than the time spent testing them."

I hadn't seen it stated that way before but it sounds a huge warning.

People like Bud Hamilton have commented about the FAA predicament but have not answered my queries about the "testing time" dilemma that the FAA faces. How about it Bud? How can the test time dilemma for US air traffic supporting systems be any different than it is for the European systems.

'One good contingency plan would be to focus on enhancements to Internet capabilities so that electronic conferences and communications can substitute for business travel.'

Harlan
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