Tenchu's Thoughts: Wag the Dog
Once again, history repeats itself. Anyone remember America's bombing of Kosovo, which happened a few months after Bill Clinton got impeached? Anyone remember when Bill Clinton ordered the failed cruise missile strike on a "pharmaceutical factory" during the height of the Lewinsky scandal? (That strike was targeting Osama bin Laden, by the way. It was the first I ever heard of that name.)
I'm not saying that Trump is actively trying to wag the dog here, nor am I saying that Bill Clinton did. But the coincidences cannot be ignored.
I remember watching Wag the Dog in theaters. There was a part in that movie that led to audible gasps in the theater. That part was a photo of the president with a girl that looked a LOT like Monica Lewinsky:
Here's the thing. Wag The Dog was produced BEFORE the Lewinsky scandal broke. There was no way the producers or the director knew about the Lewinsky scandal. (Or if they did, they wouldn't dare break the scandal on their own. After all, if you believe in conspiracy theories, you have to believe in the Clinton Body Count, where insiders who knew too much ended up committing "suicide.")
Trump's Splendid Little War
Of course, Clinton's wars had mixed results. In Kosovo, I believe Clinton got incredibly lucky. He was about to call off the bombing campaign, but just in the nick of time, Slobby Milosevic surrendered. However, his strike on Osama bin Laden was an abject failure, and arguably it helped encourage bin Laden to carry out 9/11.
So what's going to become of Trump's "splendid little war" against Iran? Yeah, I get it, you don't f--- with the United States of America. You don't fight proxy war after proxy war in the Middle East without expecting a greater power to punch you in the face. You also don't keep chanting "Death to America! Death to Israel" without expecting a fight, especially from someone as volatile and egotistical as Trump.
But here are the real questions to ask:
1) Is Iran prepared for an all-out war with America?
2) Is America prepared for an all-out war with Iran?
3) Does Trump really know WTF he is getting himself into?
I'll save #1 for later.
The question to #2 is obvious. America is tired of war after war after war in the Middle East. Right now I see a lot of cheering from Trump supporters, but that will quickly fade if Trump tries to declare war on Iran. Congress would never let him, anyway. (Pelosi might even get more desperate and expand articles of impeachment, or try and invoke the 25th amendment.)
As for #3, that to me isn't clear. Right now, his ego is wrapped in the American flag, but this was the same guy who wanted us out of Syria and who once criticized the whole war in Iraq. Of course, Trump has a reputation for changing his mind often, and by all accounts, he changes his mind based on his gut feelings. To me, that isn't very reassuring.
The Dog Wags Its Tail
The one thing that does assuage my fears is knowing that Trump didn't come up with the idea of going to war with Iran on his own. I'm pretty sure he didn't just wake up one morning and say, "Well gee, I got impeached. What should I do now? Oh, I know! I'll just declare war on Iran!"
Instead, it's been clear for a while now that Iran has been steadily escalating their sphere of influence using their proxies. The Iranian strike which killed an American contractor happened all on its own. The military's response was clearly something that our commanders planned out without being told to do so by Trump. Trump only had to approve of the response, which itself wasn't a guarantee given how Trump has gone against the advice of his military advisors in the past.
In other words, I believe the calculus for war has already been performed by Trump's advisors and among all of the top commanders in the Army. I don't believe they're going to war just to make Trump happy. I believe they genuinely think the air strikes they did are the right decisions to make.
"Why does a dog wag its tail? Because the dog is smarter than the tail. If the tail were smarter, then the tail would wag the dog."
In this case, the military commanders are the dog, and the president is the tail. In the movie, of course, the president created a fake war; therefore the president "wagged the dog." But in the current conflict with Iran, I believe the dog truly is wagging the tail here.
The Question of Iran
Now the question is whether Iran is ready for all-our war with America. After all, Iran certainly talks tough, and Iran has proven to be rather brazen in their waging of proxy wars.
But I don't think any president truly challenged Iran since the Reagan administration. Not even George W. Bush, who once placed Iran in the "Axis of Evil." Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Trump is the only president in modern history to have given Iran a bloody nose.
Now the ball is in Iran's court. Will they try and escalate the conflict into an all-out war? I doubt it, even though America is more than tired of war. They WILL get their asses kicked. Their country WILL be left in shambles. And any hopes of them growing their sphere of influence in the Middle East will be gone.
Personally I think Iran will just escalate their proxy battles. They'll do more insurgent strikes. They'll plan a ton of IEDs, Taliban-style. They'll try and ramp up the American body count in Iraq knowing that even a few dozen American casualties is all they'll need. And they'll gladly take a few more blows just to convince America to GTFO of the Middle East.
I hope Trump realizes this and does whatever he can to avoid getting us into yet another Middle Eastern quagmire. Maybe he can use his mythical dealmaking skills and use this opportunity to negotiate a cease-fire.
Because, quite frankly, we can't afford a full-scale battle with Iran. I don't care if Iran can't afford it, either. In the end, I really don't GAF about Iran. All I care about is getting us out of needless, wasteful conflicts. All I care about is the safety and the security of the United States of America and her allies. Even our alliance with Israel should be maintained wisely, not recklessly.
Now that my thoughts (ramblings?) are a matter of record, it's time to see how this plays out.
Tenchusatsu |
