Yesterday, I wrote:
Probably the only way to slow this down... will be for Trump to make a statement that "attacks on American forces by Iran and Iranian controlled proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon... at American bases in other parts of the Middle East... or anywhere else... including Iranians approaching, threatening or attacking American naval vessels... will invite immediate, direct, and proportional American retaliation on those forces, and on the drivers of those efforts, on the people and resources enabling them, and on all Iranian interests at the points of origin enabling them... including on the leadership directing them... whereever they are located".
Today, Pompeo (video) on Fox News Sunday:
Today, Pompeo (transcript) on Fox News Sunday:
First: Overnight, President Trump tweeting, "If Iran attacks an American base or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment their way." And threatening to strike 52 Iranian sites representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago.
Addresses quite well my concern (not in the quote above, but in the link) that our communications need to address, incorporate and encapsulate the full span of time and the full range of issues in the relationship. Trump succeeds... by tying what Pompeo says more pointedly... to that full, broad sweep of history, including back to the hostage taking... essentially obviating any focus on the incidental (ie., Obama) in events, while putting the entire relationship on the table.
Then:
Chris Wallace: Iran's leaders are vowing a crushing response using words like a "hard revenge." What do we do if they strike back, if they retaliate? Is there a plan and is there -- because of the fact that we went after Soleimani -- has there been a change in U.S. response where we're no longer going to go after the enemy in the field we're now going to go after Iran's command and control.
Mike Pompeo: Well, Chris, the American people know that there's a strategy. There's a strategy that has been several years in the making now, that we've been working on. It's been a diplomatic strategy. It's been an economic strategy. You're now seeing elements of the military strategy. And with respect to targets, President Trump talked about 52 targets last night. That's not new in the following sense: we've made clear to the theocrats and kleptocrats that are running Iran today, running it into the ground against the will of their own people -- we made clear to them that we would not respond just against these proxy forces that they run, in Yemen, and in Syria, and in Iraq, and in Lebanon. We made clear that this cost would be brought home to them, to the leadership regime in Iran, and that we would raise costs. We wouldn't just attack their asymmetric efforts; we would respond in a way that imposes costs on the decision-makers who are putting American lives at risk.
Chris Wallace: So, you're saying to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, you're saying to President Rouhani, you're saying to leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, "Don't think that you're off limits?"
Mike Pompeo: What I'm saying is exactly what President Trump has said. We will take responses that are appropriate and commensurate with actions that threaten American lives. That's what we've done so far, Chris. There's no reason that the American people or the Iranian regime should ever expect we'll do anything different.
That's just about perfect... exceptionally well delivered, too... and fully addresses my concern expressed yesterday... at least as far as it can... by ensuring U.S. communications MAKE THE POINT... unambiguously... including properly describing the changes being asserted in relation to OUR choices re the boundary issues... the changes in the rules...
What it does, that no one is talking about, is reset our relationship with Iran by announcing new ground rules.
What it cannot do, of course, is read or determine Iran's reception, analysis, or response...
All that we see of that, thus far, is in two elements:
The words via Chris Wallace: Iran's leaders are vowing a crushing response using words like a "hard revenge."
Then, the actions... or, in this case... the LACK of action following up on the threats that were posed by Iran... Iraqi Kata'ib Hezbollah warning Iraqi Security Forces should stay away from US bases starting Sunday evening... through one of the Iranian proxies in Iraq.
First, note, those words, in green and blue, both appear they are the threats taken from others, copied into the headlines, one of which (blue) I used in yesterdays post. They (both ?) pre-date todays communication from Pompeo, so they constitute the norm in the "before" in the sequence... leaving us with the "after" as:
Nothing newsworthy happened today.
That's a "so far, so good" issue...which doesn't mean there won't be other responses still to come.
But, it suggests "message received"... and taken seriously.
That, in itself, is an improvement over the prior 40 years history... and, now that communication seems it is occurring... we'll see where it might lead... IF Iran decides now might be a good time to re-assess their choices.
We're not yet at war with Iran today... and that's a win, for everyone... leaving me perfectly happy having been proven wrong in my guesses posted yesterday... even if all we can see, thus far, are the American inputs, and a pause...
Trump has done his part... optimally...
The rest is up to Iran. We've made it clear how we will respond to their choices... leaving it up to them to make the choices they will.
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