We'll probably be bombarded with "reporting" over the next week so here's my story. <G>
The article posted by flickerful is fairly negative. It jumps around a lot and doesn't really stay focused on lower speed xDSL (lite). I guess the real story will come out when we see unit sales of xDSL modems. I predict large-scale deployment of xDSL in 1999 in selected areas. The article mentioned $40-50 - would that be the sum of voice and data/ISP charges? I suspect that would be a very attractive rate for most subscribers. Also, one cannot really compare xDSL to ISDN either because there was no competition for the carriers during it's tenure (ISDN going down for the count). I agree that ISDN was close to a total failure.
At this point there is a lot of hype and jockeying for position. The 56K modem equipment makers want to stretch their investment, the telco's don't want to give up their excessively high tariffs on what they have now (ISDN and T-1s), some big companies aren't where they'd like to be with their products, and so on. But, the still very powerful telco's are not about to let the cable companies or their new local-market competitors steal their business so they grudgingly drag their monopolistic thinking to the xDSL arena. They are not used to having to compete in a fast moving, high-tech marketplace so we'll continue hear about lots of "technical" problems until they get more comfortable.
However, few of the Baby Bells know how to run a data network either. They have new competitors, WCOM instance, that do. Keep an eye on what UUNET (WCOM) is doing - they seem to be on the fast track. US West is offering service in the Phoenix area and I believe they're expanding it.
I think we'll see Baby Bells outsource much of their local data business until they understand it better (possibly by acquisition or strategic partnerships) or give up on it. There are a number of high-tech companies that might want to pursue that business (CSCO, BAY, 3COM, ASND, and plenty more). Be aware that there are already rules requiring LECs (Local Exchange Carriers) to allow CLECs (add Competitive) to co-locate equipment in their central offices.
You might also consider that some of earliest large deployments of xDSL might not come from within the US. Singapore has a large project underway. Ironically, relative late-comers to 20th century technology may be in a much better position to deploy xDSL than the US is (SE Asian "crisis" aside) because of their newer infrastructure and un-entrenched management.
More food for thought ... Why do you need a splitter (an often used "reason" for not being able to deploy high speed xDSL) if your voice communication system is centered on your pc? Basic pc's will soon become the voice communication devices. Think about that you Baby Bells!
AWRE looks good to me. I'm expecting deployment to go much quicker as access to the local cabling infrastructure gets easier. A number of vendors already have chassis' that can handle xDSL deployment for the central offices and the consumer devices are here with more on the way. All that's needed is the pipe and some decent pricing and the customers will come. |
