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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (13470)	1/24/1998 11:30:00 AM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) of 94695

GZ - my Barron's based indicators for this coming week: Jan 24 1998 Weekly=Up M=f,Tu=d,W=d,Th=d VIX=500 points up VGY=sell DJIA mom (377) =near peak Gut feeling - some upside Volatility=increasing Overall-not down Evaluation:of last week's forecast: Weekly-Real loss Daily-80% wrong Gut feelings: Wrong. was down Last week was the 4th week in a row with a bad forecast! Why persist with these forecasts???... well the volatility issue has been correct during the entire period and in fact, I find when the most actives say DOWN and the Oddloters say UP I find it is difficult to predict direction. Even VIX is mixed... we would be on a 5% sell at this moment except for two indicators which are in direct opposition. The interesting fact is that since the last VIX buy signal, we have had over a 6% move to the upside, low to high! I think the internal disarray of the market represents the chaos in the "real world" and until the level of unsettled issues (Iraq, SEA and the zipper-gate) goes down, we will continue to see turmoil in the markets. Well the feets-ball game this weekend should settle things... THEN we will have a reliable indicator to use! And as far as bonds... we are at the relative level now in which bonds have reversed or flattened but NOT gone up... a continued move up WOULD break that pattern and suggest you are right! Until then, I am still bullish on bonds! Bill

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