| | | Some of the best stuff comes from the people who watch the Iranians as a matter of survival: the Israelis. It's pretty useful to know how the Israelis are reading things in the wake of Soleimani being sent to collect his virgins, given that Israel has some impressive analysts. One Israeli think-tank — the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies — has a lightning-fast set of takes on what's likely to happen next with the Soleimani kill-off, and what it means, brimming with striking insights. The title of the study just out is "The Soleimani Killing: An Initial Assessment," and it's a must-read at this link here. The essays are short and striking.
Read more: americanthinker.com
besacenter.org
Even if the ayatollah were inclined to select a younger replacement, the targeting of Soleimani prevents him from making such a choice. The killing proves beyond doubt that the Iranian security system is riddled with informants. They knew when Soleimani left his secret hideout in Damascus, what plane he boarded, at which airport he was going to land, which vehicles he and his retinue entered upon landing, and exactly what time those vehicles were heading out of the airport.
This suggests an information flow involving tens if not hundreds of
informants closely connected to the upper echelons of the Quds Force.
These informants could and did provide this information to their American
counterparts in real time to get the US helicopters in position for the kill.
The killing of Number Two in any country creates a devastating chain of
destructive suspicion and anxiety in the corridors of power. Khamenei’s
only choice in naming a successor was to choose from among old
stalwarts who are above suspicion. Every individual who is newer to the
organization and to the wider security network is now suspect.
Many will no doubt be removed if not executed as Iranian counterintelligence teams try to identify the informants. The problem for the
regime is figuring out who is going to replace them.
Khamenei also understands the destructive relationship between imperialist
expansion and the danger that the state’s security services will be penetrated.
If Israel could uncover secret nuclear installations in Tehran, consider how
much more readily the Americans, who have a massive presence in Iraq and
Lebanon, can recruit Iraqis and Lebanese to penetrate the Iranian labyrinth
in both states and from there work their way into Iran itself.
The killing of Soleimani suggests that just as thousands have shown
themselves willing to demonstrate openly against Iran, many others are
choosing to be informers at a time when the Iranian rial is worth two-thirds
of its value less than two years ago.
Most Iraqis love neither Iran nor the US and are sitting on the sidelines
waiting to see which state’s influence prevails over their country. The
killing of Soleimani was a massive show of American force because he
was touted by Iran as invincible. |
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