Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Don Earl who wrote (19795)	1/24/1998 12:56:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (3) of 42771

Novell --- 7 backlog where 7 1/8th used to be Looking at the trading---roughly five overall trades to one marketmaker trade, spread at 1/32 almost always, volume lower than normal for some time now, no volume spikes. Upside: It is a proven fact that anyone that wants to move this stock up on volume can. I attribute the last excuse for an upward spike to the release of NDS on NT. The stock jumped a point, which as "serendipity" pointed out, no one can catch. So is there any news that can cause an upward spike. -1-takeover -2-either the caching, web server, or NDS on NT product becomes "hot" (SALES!!! NOT HYPE) -3- Novell does something with Netscapes browser code or announces a new significant product. -4- Pre-earnings run the stock up manipulation. Realistic propositions for any of the above? Well I haven't seen anyone posting press notices about hot Novell products. Somebody should look for this info and post their opinion. Takeover getting warmer but we don't have Netware 5 yet. New products and using the browser code etc., well its not Novell's style. Pre-earnings, well its too early but it will happen. Downside: Dead money comments in the financial press. Earnings bleakness and lack of any upside analysis coming from anywhere. NDS on NT shotgun blast from MSFT and lack of strategy for this on the part of braindead Novell BOD. (meaning any product that threatens MSFT will be dealt with like MSFT dealt with NSCP and Borland and Corel and Symantec and .... and what will NOVL do about it. Response: "What me worry.") So how does an investor approach this? I cannot go with VK's educated chart guesses because I don't believe the stock will get much beyond 9 without a good quarter (see Salah). I know we cannot beat the insider leaks that drove the stock up when the two IBM guys were hired (except to be holding the stock when that happensns). But I also know that the downside potential is limited by everything except a Corel like collapse of sales (and Schmidt has been paying attention to the enterprise) or a general collapse of the market (Asia spreading fast as opposed to slow.) So downside is 5 1/2 to 6 1/2. ================================= Any comments or info???? (Disclaimer: All my comments on Silicon Investor represent my own opinions and are not a recommendation to anyone to do anything with their investments.)

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