I've tied some Oil & Gas Y2K Readiness(?) info together - It doesn't look good. CK HOUSTON
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PRUDHOE BAY, Ala. -- It is January 1, 2000. Far to the south in the Lower 48, information systems managers are shaking off the effects of the New Year's Eve party of the century, and checking in to verify that their data-processing systems all survived the change of calendar.
Somewhere down the pipeline, a pumping station has shut down and refuses to answer. Minute by minute, a cylinder of crude oil reaching halfway across the tundra is getting colder, turning to sludge. Once frozen, it will not thaw until spring.
The scenario, according to an increasing array of embedded-systems experts, is possible. Year 2000 syndrome--the collection of software errors that comes from using only two digits instead of four to represent the calendar year-have so far been exclusively the headache of the data-processing community.
But in recent months operators of deeply embedded computing systems--the controllers that run pumping stations, hydroelectric dams and chemical plants--have begun to wonder how immune they really are.
There have been no major reports of Year 2000 problems in control systems, but experts say some may be infected by Year 2000 bugs. These bugs will prove resistant to most of the tools that have been developed to deal with the problem in the data-processing world.
"The bottom line is, we simply don't know how many embedded control systems will be affected," said Ray Alderman of the Embedded Software Association.
Estimates by industry analysts suggest that the number is not large. Perhaps 5 percent of embedded systems will misbehave when their real-time clock ticks zero two years from now. But a wide range of organizations, from automated manufacturing lines to public utilities to the operators of the Alaska pipeline, are chilled by one thought: They don't know which 5 percent.
The result is a growing chorus of concern from top managers, and belated stirrings from a collection of consulting groups, engineering firms and software tool vendors.
With little time left, without access to the shortcuts that have aided Year 2000 solutions in data processing, and with an enormous number of embedded systems to examine, they have their work cut out for them.
Year 2000 failures in embedded systems can come from a number of sources, some very elusive, said Ken Owen, vice president of business development at consultancy TAVA Technologies (Denver).
pubsys.cmp.com
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Major oil companies ring alarm bell... Companies such as Royal Dutch/Shell & British Petroleum said they realize they are sitting on a time bomb & are racing against the clock to check millions of microprocessors. They fear smaller firms have not yet fully grasped the threat to the oil industry.
techstocks.com
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British Petroleum, Shell-EXXON Identified REAL Problems
techstocks.com
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30% FAILURE RATE:
Large Crude Carriers & Fuel Storage Facilities at Overseas Airports
SIM discussion board, Topic 11,'Infrastructure Year 2000 Problems'
Just got off the phone with a contact at US Army Corps of Engineers. He was passing on to me a conversation he had had with an individual whose firm had done a Y2K study on behalf of Shell and other oil companies.
The findings: that there was a roughly 30% Y2K failure rate in the embedded control systems aboard very-large and super-large crude carriers (VLCCs and SLVCs), the enormous and highly computerized oil tankers that ply the oceans.
There was also about the same failure rate in the embedded control systems found in fuel storage facilities at overseas airports.
Bruce F. Webster, CTO, Object Systems Group Member, Fannie Mae Year 2000 Team
Chair Pro Tem, Washington DC Year 2000 Group
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SOME SUPERTANKERS MUST BE DRYDOCKED FOR Y2K FIX!
Found out Jan 21 '97 from a very reliable source - Cheryl Kufta
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NEW PROBLEMS IN OIL REFINERIES
"But while the company was testing some of the equipment that controlled oil valves in its refineries, engineers inadvertently discovered a host of new problems. Thousands of terminals that control the (dispensation) of oil have old chips with a Year 2000 problem.
"The chips ALL need replacing - BUT the new chips won't fit on the old motherboards and the new motherboards don't fit the old valves. So all the valves have to be replaced too."
"If the company doesn't address all these problems, it soon won't be able to deliver oil to its customers."
Consider the implications of the oil company example extending throughout the economy and you'll have some idea of the unpredictability of the economic consequences of Y2K.
December 9, 1997 - Letter to Alan Greenspan
y2ktimebomb.com
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STUNNED BY MAGNITUDE OF PROBLEM
Excerpts from a pretty frightening email I received regarding OIL INDUSTRY state-of-readiness on Year 2000 "embedded system" problems. Actual name of oil company changed to "MAJOR OIL COMPANY" at request of who sent this to me. This company is NOT one of the companies previously mentioned in this post. It's another one! CK HOUSTON
"Got off the phone with Mr. XXXX from MAJOR OIL COMPANY today, and was stunned by the magnitude of the problem at that company alone."
In 1996 MAJOR OIL COMPANY believed that the Y2K issue was an IT mainframe issue only. It wasn't until this past August 1997(!!!) that the embedded system, PLC issues came to awareness.
They now recognize that everything from manufacturing, refining, exploration, process control, blending, and delivery systems are affected by this.
They have triaged a critical list of highest medium and low criticality and have just dismissed the low items and will deal with them as they break. They also are identifying the interfaces with others that they depend upon for delivery of product, utility generation etc. and are working with these issues now.
An example given was the Texas Pipeline that comes out of their refinery in Texas and across the midwest.
They lease the pipeline, as do other companies, and sophisticated computer programs between the separate refineries and the pipeline owners track exact amounts of delivery throughout the midwest. This system then controls flow from different refineries to their destinations and the amounts in the system.
Any non-compliant interface between programs regarding date, and between the software and PLCs in the pipeline, would cause the line to shut down.
If not repaired within three days the refinery would not be able to operate due to lack of storage space for product.
The Natural gas pipeline to the Northeast is similar with different companies leasing the line for gas delivery. Customer expectation is gas for the winter heating needs.
As to oil rigs, they are setting up demonstration rigs here in the US to duplicate the structures on the platforms and hopefully assess compliance that way. With the rigs however, the outgoing pipelines that transport the crude to unloading stations, are also shared by various companies who have to coordinate their testing and shutdowns with MAJOR OIL COMPANY.
Mr. XXXX ended by stating, that this is NOT an information problem.
This is a BUSINESS RISK PROBLEM with vast consequences for MAJOR OIL COMPANY's business relationships with customers and business viability for the company.
He then said, what has been missed by most, is that over the past twenty years, all of our manual way of doing things in our infrastructure, has changed to computer software or PLC driven equipment. And, that the problem is so pervasive that we don't even know where they are.
He listed, from his perspective, the major infrastructure needs threatened were electicity, natural gas, oil, other utilities, telephones and financial services.
He stated that the company was comfortable doing the assessment in-house.
He admitted that they did not have the manpower in-house to do the remediation, and that they would have to go outside for this help.
He was concerned about the escalating cost of this for his business, but especially for the small or medium business . and the lack of qualified personnel to perform all the work to be done.
WE departed, with the following reflection from Mr. XXXX:
"I discussed this issue with a consultant just yesterday, and he said the US and UK were doing a lousy job with this so far - but there were pockets of companies making great progress in the Y2K assessment and early remediation in embedded systems. As to the rest of the world, they can't even be categorized as doing a pathetic job since they for all purposes are doing NOTHING".
I have tried my damnedest to be level headed about this, as I have learned and organized this group.
As we embark on spreading the word about this problem I find myself more frightened than ever regarding the severity of the problem . moderately severe here in the US . but so devastating elsewhere. The iceberg analogy does nothing for this problem.
It is a monster of sorts, that I could never have dreamed about as a child. For up until the last two years, I never imagined such a hideous impact on our fabric of life.
Wanted to give you an update on my work and let you in on some interesting discussions I have had with others in the field. |
