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Strategies & Market Trends : Underexposed Technical Analysis

AQN 6.065

-1.5%

12:38 PM EST

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To: robert b furman who wrote (728)	1/16/2020 7:18:42 PM
From: Underexposed	Read Replies (1) of 914

US: How bout that Cohu today! I have been looking at Cohu today since it is time for my update on the American Fantasy Portfolio. Today was yet another good day but I feel there are concerns on the horizon. To say that COHU has been a great performer is an understatement. You brought this stock to my attention in the beginning of October and since putting it into the American Fantasy Stock portfolio here it has gained over 70% (I will know exactly later today). I wish I had the money in my US dollar account to have invested in this stock as I would have bought the 2000 shares , the same as in this fantasy portfolio, as this is typical of the number of stocks I normally would have at that level (I generally try for $15,000 - $25,000 purchases initially.) So I would've been up over $20,000 on this stock. But all good things come to an end.... and I see troubles on the horizon for COHU. They may not be permanent troubles but there is too much profit involved to mess about. In the upper left you see the computer giving a "Long Tail Up" warning. This occurs if you see an unbroken rise of a stock price for 20 or more boxes. It is a reversal warning. This started roughly at $20.00. If you look ahead there are 2 resistances at $25.50 - $25.75 and finally at $27.00. Those resistances mark the all time high for this stock and investors remember that. As a result I would expect a lot of profit taking at those points. Currently though all is well we have a nice result today which may be the beginning of yet another small breakout next week. We closed above the upper bollie so on Monday there may be a small pullback to get back in the envelope. The Slow Sto and MACD are quite good but the BBwidth is a bit very muted.... it may pick up on Monday and reveal a real breakout...we shall see. Don't forget we are within $1.50 of that first resistance band. Actually if you look at that candlestick today it reached for the edge of that resistance band rising to $25.38 but then pulled back. I added the ichimoku chart here to see what it can contribute. The CMF(30) and CCI(30) are very bullish. The on balance Vol is flat with a negative drift If you look in the main chart you see the thin red line converging fast on the thin blue line....still bullish but fading fast. The share price is still high above the clouds but in Feb if there is a profit taking decline, it could be in trouble with that green cloud. I haven't made up my mind yet... but I am leaning toward placing a Limit stop loss order for Monday morning Too much profit involved to risk losing it. Then I would sit back and look for an opportunity to rebuy when the dust settled. Just a warning... nothing imminent that I can see.... just that feeling between your shoulder blades :) Good Trading UE

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