| | | You post a poll showing Trump's approval ratings and then go on to say that is PROOF he will lose the election in November. This is ridiculous on its face and tells anyone that knows math that you are an idiot. Polls are statistical samples. They deal in probabilities, not PROOF. In addition, samples can only be projected to the population with a low margin of error if 1) the are structured to represent the population faithfully and 2) they sample sizes are appropriate to narrow the margin of error. Many polls you see in the MSM are oversampled with Democrats, because they claim more Democrats are likely to vote, which is a logical fallacy and a huge assumption that skews the sample results in favor of liberal opinions.
In addition, in most Presidential polls, you'll see that Presidents almost never have more than 50% approval ratings, and yet, they go on to win a second term most of the time. The incumbent has an enormous platform advantage over would be usurpers. They also simply have more name recognition and a record to run on.
Now for how a real statistician might conduct a comparison poll. According to Gallup, Trump has a 45% approval rating as of the end of December 2019. At this same time during Obama's Presidency, Obama had a 42% approval rating, and yet, Obama went on to win a second term.
So much for your ridiculous assertion that your poll is PROOF Trump will lose. The fact is that Trump has a higher approval rating than Obama did at this time. And it is no wonder, because Trump has done far more for the American people in his first 3 years as President than Obama did in his 8 years as President. |
|
