Hi Steve:
I generally agree with your calculations relating the LMDS
licenses to the WCII licenses. However, I am slightly leery
of linear interpolations based on the raw amount of bandwidth.
As we all know, the value of houses does not vary linearly
with square footage. For the case of WCII/TGNT versus LMDS,
there exists a small difference between the range of services
that can be offered by TGNT/WCII (telephony plus data),
versus LMDS (add video). Right now, video is not worth much,
but it might in the future.
What I am trying to say is that the LMDS auction should not
necessarily be viewed as a precise measure of dollars per
bandwidth, but of dollars per services offered. Both WCII/TGNT
and LMDS bidders face also an element of uncertainty, namely
the possibility of future auctions in the 39GHz band. By the
way, concerning Vogel's comments that the LMDS auction could be
either postponed or voided, the postponement migh occur, but is
not likely. On the other hand, the voiding of the auction
would be an extraordinary decision that a federal court
would be unlikely to make (in essence, it represents a
judicial intervention in federal commerce). So if the auction
takes place, expect that its results will stick. It would
be more likely that the court would order the FCC to
include RBOCs in future auctions, or even to conduct a
special make-up auction (say with 39GHz licenses).
Best regards,
Bernard Levy |
