Mason, My purpose was to put all the info into perspective. If the Japanese cut spending in this area by 200 billion Yen, that's about US$1.5 billion, it's a lot of money. But, no one I know was expecting them to increase spending in 1998. In fact, given that their spending has consistently declined since 1995's high of 886 billion Yen, a continued drop should not have been a surprise. Now look at their share of the world market, their spending relative to INTC's spending plans of roughly $4.5 billion for 1998 (the missing money reflects the DEC plant acquisition as stated in INTC's conference call.)And finally, why aren't you commenting on the growth in the US, Taiwan, and Europe?? You seem to be blind to these other regions of the world which are equally important to the industry. Other people are beginning to focus here, and on Korea's improvements,too. Let's look at ALL the factors, not just the one's that fit our bias.
Another positive in Japan is the reduction of 16Mb DRAM production and the accelerating move to increase 64Mb DRAM production using the .25 micron process.
My conclusion is this: I believe that blood levels are dropping in the street, and stock prices are stabilizing. When they complete Korea's debt restructuring next week, look out for a possible rally.
Chalks |
