Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 158.97

+1.2%

10:46 AM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (4573)	1/24/1998 6:18:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (2) of 10921

Ian Unfortunately the market listens to BiPolar Tom. 16 Mb DRAM is still a large part of the pie. We would not be seeing such low prices if there wasn't overcapacity. Having said that I'm agreeing with your overall take. There is an article in sbn entitled: Capacity is driving force in semiconductor industry. Check it out. I have the printed copy. Maybe at seminews.com. Tries to explain that the equation s/ be demand:capacity and not demand:supply. And why with surging unit demand revenue growth overall is pitiful. Their argument - mass overcapacity is crushing ASPs. Which makes eminent sense to me. BUT only in certain segments. Unfortunately one such segment is DRAM and that segment drives a large part of the growth or lack thereof in the YOY revenue growth in the industry. But as they point out the situation is changing. The spending on capacity is coming down because the revenue growth (and lack of cash flow) is stifling future investments. Translated: some have no money to overspend.

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