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Strategies & Market Trends : US Inflation and What To Do About It
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To: RetiredNow who wrote (1341)1/24/2020 6:39:47 PM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (2) of 1504
 
How much longer can tech and multinational corporate America hold on till next collapse??

Look at charts of US Steel, Alcoa, Transocean, Diamond Offshore as examples. They were cheap in 2000 but sky high in 2007. Homebuilders were beaten up to cycle lows by end of 2000 and 2007 (beginning of recession). So this cycle a bit different..

If I was to guess I would expect the 1991-2007 repeat economic/RE cycle 2009-25 except we missed the 2001-02 downturn repeat due to Trump's stimulus, tax cuts and pro growth policies. We are probably comparable to January 2004 about now on economic and RE cycles (not sky high DOW and RE already at end of cycle peaks due to very low rates past decade)..

As to RE I have never seen it in so many strong hands so many debt free. Foreclosures keep dropping and dropping. The speculation of the past cycle is non existent. Rents sky high rates dirt low so cash on cash returns of 6-7% relative to the 10 year are quite reasonable much of the country compared to 2006 when it was just ridiculous 2% yields versus 5% on ten year I just read Millenials control only 4% of residential housing value. Boomers at comparable periods 30 years ago controlled 1/3 of residential housing value. I've been seeing a ton of 2-3% down loans for near two years now and read the dire shortage of starter homes will keep the builders busy for years getting Millenials finally into homeownership. Only a matter of time before Millenials are all in.. As of today has many years to run.. WHEN MILLENIALS ARE ALL IN YOU WANT TO BE OUT?
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