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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks
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To: isopatch who wrote (96557)1/24/2020 9:51:20 PM
From: the longhorn4 Recommendations

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DinoNavarre
isopatch
roguedolphin
Winfastorlose

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HI Iso,

Yep, overstated. I liked the guy from North Carolina..I believe. The other fellow who talked a lot about the flooding was way out in front on his predictions.

End of year grain production for the world is summarized in this report: downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu .

These end of year numbers are good as they are real.

US production down 20% on soybeans, world down 6%.

US production in corn down 5%, world down 1%.

US production in wheat up 2%, world up 1%.

There were (and still are) enormous reserves out there. Both in storage in commercial facilities and on private farms. Modern farmers are like corporations...have significant storage reserves of their own now in many cases. Ukraine and Brazil are emerging power players in the ag market...especially Brazil. And China normally buys a lot of beans from us but over 60% of their swine died...hence no need for them. ALl of that uproar about our soybean farmers losing export sales etc was nonsense. China did not have any reason to buy. As they rebuild their herd...which will take time...those sales are likely to pick up again.

Long term I think a reset is coming. Cycles come and go. We are due. And one thing for sure...our own USDA will give us no warning. They are in the pockets of the big buyers and trading houses. So one just has to watch and wait. I expect a more immediate uptick in meat prices.

lh
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