| | | If/when it gets serious...like a -3% or more day...followed by a lower closing low (after a possible weak dead-cat bounce), everybody will go to cash. You're right, during that initial panic, gold falls too.
Other "black swans" that have been looming, follow-on swans, are still at quite relatively high probabilities of occurring.
Knowing that things like pandemics, volcanoes, crippling earthquakes, crop failure, general social unrest and craziness, etc, regularly attend Grand Solar Minimums (and this one with a magnetic polar reversal that will make the GSM look like a sideshow), these things are not really "black swan" events. They're expected.
One down (two if you want to include the level of global crop failure already seen), several more to go.
If black swans are supposed to be "surprising", the surprise now would be if something happened that turned away the inevitable....call it a white swan event....much more unlikely at this point. |
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