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Technology Stocks : AMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA
AMD 260.58+9.7%11:58 AM EST
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To: Vattila who wrote (35053)1/29/2020 9:14:36 AM
From: VattilaRead Replies (3) of 72284
 
AMD 2019 EPS Contest Scores

Here is the summary of our predictive powers on this board:

Full year scores










Rank User


Entries EPS score Revenue score Outlook score Overall score
- Zacks Estimate


4 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.9708
1 Vattila


4 0.98 0.96 0.84 0.9264
2 Pravin Kamdar


4 0.98 0.95 0.84 0.9258
3 rzborusa


3 0.73 0.70 0.70 0.7106
4 neolib


3 0.73 0.72 0.65 0.6977
5 knykny


2 0.49 0.46 0.40 0.4496
6 gzubeck


2 0.46 0.37 0.32 0.3822
7 THE WATSONYOUTH


1 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.2468
8 FUBHO


1 0.21 0.20 0.25 0.2199
9 Harvey Allen


1 0.20 0.17 0.25 0.2058










Quarterly average










Rank User


Entries EPS score Revenue score Outlook score Overall score
1 THE WATSONYOUTH


1 1.00 0.96 1.00 0.9871
- Zacks Estimate


4 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.9708
2 rzborusa


3 0.97 0.93 0.94 0.9475
3 neolib


3 0.97 0.96 0.87 0.9303
4 Vattila


4 0.98 0.96 0.84 0.9264
5 Pravin Kamdar


4 0.98 0.95 0.84 0.9258
6 knykny


2 0.97 0.93 0.80 0.8991
7 FUBHO


1 0.84 0.80 1.00 0.8796
8 Harvey Allen


1 0.80 0.67 1.00 0.8230
9 gzubeck


2 0.92 0.73 0.64 0.7643

I had to calculate the overall score to four decimals to separate Pravin and myself! :-)

Sadly we were not able to beat Zacks, except for TheWatsonYouth's average, which is only based on a single entry for Q1, which hit the EPS bullseye. However, he is unduly advantaged by getting an automatic perfect outlook score in that contest, since we didn't include forecasting before Q2. Also note that Gzubeck is unfairly disadvantaged by not taking part in Q1, since he didn't get the automatic perfect outlook score for that quarter, unlike those who did.

Note that scores are calculated as (1+error)^-2 per quarter and normalized for the year by sum(scores)/4. The squaring of the denominator in the score calculation is just done to spread out the scores a little. There is no explicit relative weighting of EPS and revenue error, i.e. a 1 cent error in EPS equals a $10M error in revenue.
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