You know, you said I was a contrarian indicator, but I'm not sure you know what that means. A contrarian indicator is when someone or something tells you something and then the opposite happens. And yet, the last two times I warned that we were in for a correction was in 2018 and then again this time. If you had traded on what I had said, you would have made good money, since you say you are a trader. I bet my own book too, but I am not a trader. Right now, roughly, I am invested in money markets (34%), low duration Treasuries(40%), physical real estate (25%), and lastly gold+silver (1%). I will increase my gold/silver position to 5% over the next 11 months. I'm up 5% on my gold & silver positions YTD. Not bad.
Here's my next prediction. The corona virus is not going away anytime soon. It will continue to create a lot of havoc with supply chains, as the world cuts China off. It has ALREADY gummed up supply chains and that will accelerate corporate plans to move out of China. You are looking at the Black Swan we all knew was coming. We didn't know it would be a virus, but this market simply needed any catalyst to sell off. We have one now. We also have the Bernie effect. The higher he rises in the polls, the more spooked Wall Street will get. This correction will continue with fits and starts. It will recover and then the next day, more news of the acceleration of the corona virus will smack it back down. Overall, we'll continue to correct until we see at least a 20% correction from the highs. If the real economic impact of the virus is severe, which I believe it will be, then we could see a more severe correction to 40% off the peaks.
Just telling the thread this in advance. I'm sleeping well at night with my portfolio intact from this latest crisis. I hope you can make money off the volatility. You'll surely get plenty this year, as it will take at least until late summer before they have a vaccine for the virus. Until then, things are going to get much worse. God help us all. |
