US Inflation and What To Do About It Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : US Inflation and What To Do About It

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To: RetiredNow who wrote (1360)	1/31/2020 9:24:04 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) of 1504

I had a very good year last year. I was up 39.3%, in large part due to a monster 4th quarter where my emerging market etfs and gold and silver mining positions surged over a short period of time. For January, my portfolio was down 3.2% due mostly to the two above positions: emerging markets and mining. I don't mind the volatility and am use to it. Markets inhale and exhale. I have over 100 positions in my portfolio and am very well diversified. I think the 3125-3160 level on the SPX is a very good area to buy with a stop loss at 3104. I find your permabearish scenario to be very unrealistic. First of all, I expect only .4% to be shaved off US and Chinese GDP growth as a result of the virus. Markets are currently trying to price that in. I do not see more than a 10-20% correction and then new all time highs. I think the Bernie Sanders scenario has the potential to cause the S&P to decline to 1800 if he gets elected. There is no way Trump would allow the market to fall that much in an election year and by that I mean 10%-20%. He would cut payroll taxes and have the government send a nice check to every family to spend at a US retailer or restaurant. In short: Trump will do whatever is necessary to support the economy to get reelected. The rise in the market was based on speculation. I had asked you previously not to post to me because I was sick of hearing the permabear view. I hear enough of it on the Gold thread I moderate, where almost all the posters are permabears. On that thread, I have no choice but to hear it and respond. There is nothing you haven't expressed to me that I haven't heard already on the Gold thread. I wasn't mad at you, just irritated because you usually post to me with renewed permabearish vigor at the beginning of market corrections. If the Fed ends up cutting rates, then gold will rally to $1650-$1700. Miners are currently consolidating.

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