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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting
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To: AdvocatusDiaboli who wrote (32774)2/1/2020 3:23:37 AM
From: Underexposed1 Recommendation

Recommended By
rdkflorida2

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Hi AD
I believe the market will likely correct as previously stated by around 7% from the ATH. The market has got ahead of itself and needed to take a breather. It was looking for an excuse to correct not a reason. Coronavirus is just that excuse.
Right now the Coronavirus is simply an excuse to take profits but it could turn into something much more serious.....then watch out.

When SARS happened as I recall it caught most by surprise. we never had a real pandemic since the Spanish flue in the early 1900's. Nations were very scattered in their approach to the spread of the SARS virus... luckily though it was truly deadly, it was slow and hard to catch.

The coronavirus is less deadly and unknown as to how it is transmitted. It is like a souped up flu at present... but what if it mutated to something more serious. The cold is a close relative to this virus but no one has been able to develop a vaccine for it.... even the SARS vaccine today is only a possibility as being effective....no trials have been done on humans yet...SARS petered out before it was ready.

Today we seem to be more ready...lessons learned and while there may be questions about the Chinese response initially, they have been more transparent than with world than when SARS happened. Providing the Cornavirus genome certainly helped other centers of disease research.

We are seeing an increasing isolationist response this time. Airline travel is suffering between China and other countries which is bad enough but if the disease breakouts become more serious with other countries those disruptions would probably increase. In China, cities are being isolated from each other, major stores and manufacturers are shutting or slowing down...soon there will be supply problems there especially with respect to food and services. Many in North America might laugh at these measures ...but just think if this disease really catches hold on this continent or Europe... the same measures may take place too.

We are really looking at the beginning of a potential pandemic not the end of one.

If this blows over in a month or so...then yes, things may return to normal... If this gets worse... who knows what will happen.

One thing I hope falls out from this is that the Chinese take a hard look at their live markets and fix them...enforce higher standards... Their form of government is such that they can make that happen. I have been to China myself and I was impressed with their energy and ability to do things once they put their mind to it. Shenzhen in 1985 was a fishing village... I went there in 2005 or so to investigate teaching ESL ... in that 20 year gap they built a very modern city of 7 million people.

Anyway, lets hope this disease runs a fast course and disappears

UE
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