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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: skinowski who wrote (702578)2/1/2020 1:54:53 PM
From: Crony1 Recommendation

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ig

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Simple explanation:

The virus started late December. The Wuhan authorities didn't do much to stop it or to notify the residents so many people got infected.
Lets say by Jan 15 there are 50,000 infected.

The hospitals didn't have enough test kits and manpower to test more than several hundred people a day initially. So the numbers of confirmed cases were growing by 100s a day.
With every passing days more and more doctors and test kits were sent to the area and by the end of the January they were able to test some 5000-10000 patients a day. So the number of cases started to increase by 1000-2000 a day.
By this time there are let's say 200,000 infected in the area with majority of them never seen by a doctor due to hospitals being overwhelmed.

So when you see a number of confirmed case jump from 5000 to 7000, many would assume these 5000 infected 2000. No. There are 200,000 infected in the city and those 200,000 infected those 2000.

That is why the number of confirmed cases shouldn't be used when calculating the mortality, because there are many many many times more infected in Wuhan area then the number of cases.

But when you use the numbers from different areas - the difference between the real number of infected and confirmed cases since most everyone with symptoms will run to a hospital to be tested.
That is why the mortality rate is 20 times less than in Wuhan. Plus more medical attention can be given to those sick in other areas comparing to Wuhan.
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