C.S.Y2K 24-25 Jan 1998 - long post: NRC; Cowles on ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook; update of www.euy2k.com; ...
Some interesting posts from C.S.Y2K:
- 'NRC says no new nuclear plants built in over 20 years. 90% of sensors are analog, not digital.'
- 'NEI Director of Operations Jim Davis compares the century rollover
to the exercise nuclear power plants must run through for conversion to Daylight Savings Time'
- 'www.euy2k.com website has been updated a few times in recent '
- Paul, I agree panic is in the offing but it will be much later rather than'sooner.'
- 'Ratio of faults - 2:25:100:1 ??'
John
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'NRC says no new nuclear plants built in over 20 years. 90% of sensors are analog, not digital. Very little reliance on digital technology for core reaction (Fission -> heat water -> steam -> electricity). The "ON/OFF" switch is not digital.
There is a risk of digitial Y2K problem in peripheral systems such as
security, surveillence, testing, event reporting, etc. They claim to be
taking appropriate measures.
This is good news.
For more info, see
ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook, January 23, 1998, Volume 3, No. 3
(I am on e-mail list. I do not have an URL)'
thanks to Ol'Timer
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'Here's a fun one from the wonderful world of nuclear energy and Y2k.
This excerpt is from the most recent ITAA mailing:
>ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook
>January 23, 1998 Volume 3, No. 3
<snip snip>
>None of which is to suggest that the nuclear power
>industry is necessarily asleep at the switch when it comes
>to the Year 2000. On the contrary, the Nuclear Energy
>Institute (NEI) and Nuclear Utilities Software Management
>Group (NUSMG) teamed up last fall to issue a Y2K strategy
>document for the industry called Nuclear Utility Year 2000 Readiness.
>(NRC's Jerry) Wermiel calls it "a fairly effective program
>"covering everything a licensee needs to be concerned about."
>The federal regulator wants to see a Y2K plan at least as good as
>the NEI/NUSMG approach in place at every nuclear power facility.
>
>How difficult it will be to implement those plans remains to be seen.
>NEI Director of Operations Jim Davis compares the century rollover
>to the exercise nuclear power plants must run through for >conversion to Daylight Savings Time. "Not a big deal," he says, >adding that the twice-yearly time switch is a routine with which >professionals in his industry have learned to cope. Y2K is just >bigger.
Well, the cat's outta the bag. The jig is up. Y2k is just like switching
to Daylight Savings Time! Only bigger! Duh. What have I been knocking myself out for.
Well, it's back to the french fry pit for me as soon as the boss figures
this one out.
--
Rick Cowles (Public PGP key on request)'
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Subject: EUY2K Update, 23 January 1998
'Just a quick note to let everyone in the n.g. know that the www.euy2k.com website has been updated a few times in recent weeks. Want to know what the Y2k status of your particular electric company might be? Check out the links page and find out if your electric service provider has bothered to list anything on their corporate website regarding Y2k.
Two New Features: The list keeps growing. Over the next few months, you'll see the editorial content of the EUY2K website shift more toward the subject of contingency planning. At this point, all companies need to be thinking in terms of system recovery post-01 January 2000. It's a given that there will be system failures. Rather than debating that issue, it's time to consider the magnitude and breadth of the failures. Both will vary from company to company. The two new topics added this month are:
Contingency Planning
Industry Documents
Y2K needs to be a non-competitive issue within the electric utility
industry. Each electric company is, in some ways, dependent on the
other, and the synergy that can be developed when all work together toward a common goal can be powerful, indeed. More to the point, there is not enough time for every company to completely reinvent the wheel each time another phase of the Y2K program is started.
In this spirit, Duke Energy and TransAlta Utilities (Canada), two electric industry leaders in the Y2K problem, have agreed to place some of their Y2K program documents online at the Y2K website for download. Any other industry additions to the tool box now online are welcomed!
--
Rick Cowles (Public PGP key on request) '
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1/24/1998
Subject: Re: Business: Catastrophic halt
'Paul, I agree panic is in the offing but it will be much later rather than
sooner. People are incapable of hysteria about events still portrayed
as100 weeks away. If panic over intangibles was easy, the financial
markets would now be battle zones because of Asian worries. The ordinary citizen can barely spell Y2K and is a very long way away from connecting the dots back to his own life. The concentrated Y2K dosage that is available on the internet for those interested has no relationship to what normal people are exposed to. Critical mass is still a long way off. The lack of anxiety is what's keeping business remediation interest at such a low level. What's needed is something graphic, perhaps a good train wreck or two.
Allen Comstock'
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Subject: Re: Ratio of faults - 2:25:100:1 ?? anyone want a stab ?
Date: 22 Jan 1998 14:55:18 GMT
'Chip Aspnes wrote:
>We've tested systems where 9/9/99 is critical and leap days were
>irrelevant. One system is only sensitive to a '00' year. Non-'00'
>years work fine. Sometime a range, not the inherent dates, is the
>critical factor. 99 and 00 trigger the fault as easily as 97 and 96.
>Clock wraparound, epoch calculations and day-of-week calculations can fail anytime regardless of whether 2000 has passed or not.
Good observation, Chip.
Ratios are interesting, but regardless of relative occurrence I'd worry a lot more about 99 dates than leap years, for the simple reason that they'll get you first! The true drop-dead date for some remediations will be 1999-09-09, for others it will be the first lookahead into 1999, even FY 1999.
Some of us will have the old system humming along, the new system in pieces all over the shop floor, and no way of slamming the new into production when the 99's hit the fan sometime in 1998.
Your first encounter may be a cosmetic laugher. Your first encounter may be a show stopper. Your first encounter may be an enterprise-wide database purge trigger.
-- RonKenyon
"No excuses. Excuses are not going to lift up your butt" (Cher) '
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