Bruce: thank you for the link I had used a year ago, but not checked recently. Thank you for reminding it to me. I check Kitco once and a while but I cannot take all that non-gold blablabla which was occuring while a double-bottom was forming. Maybe the group was depressed.
Anyway: I made an error by thinking that Fidelity FDPMX was more in South African goldmines than FSAGX ! That was true last year!. Even in June 97, they had 30% in S.A gold... while now they have about only 7% !.. And 20% of my retirement is in FDPMX now and 50% in FSAGX). I wonder whether FDPMX will dive back into S.A. mines if the price of the bullion goes way up. I would think so. My play money is now in ALTA (80%) and the rest in VAALY (20%) (not the safest to play stocks because I managed to sell all my equities and buy these gold stocks on margin and I carry therefore a very large margin call (large for me, a minuscule investor!). I will have to answer this call this week by selling some of my holdings, hopefully with a profit.
Here is a link for FDPMX
personal11.fidelity.com
I played gold stocks this time, from a T.A. and political perspective. I don't know enough other fundamentals about gold, though.
The Einhorn article(Barron's), being sooooo one sided against gold,... looks very bullish to me: outrageous reporting to me from Mrs Einhorn. I need both sides of an event: they are THE specialists.... help us! Just say you really don't know what will happen because there are pros and cons about owning gold right now. Bill Rogers, in last week's Barron's (roundtable 1) said for 1998 "he liked metals-except gold-"! Has always been against gold recently.
And I count on the Europeans to wake up to gold despite their government having sold some of it. The regular Joe might rule!
When I invested in gold in January-February 97, that was also from a TA perspective.
This time it looks better to me because of the following combinations:
(a) TA looks great right now.
(b) The double-bottom we have placed is rare in equities and is very bullish psycholigically.
(c) some countries AND their citizens have seen the benefit of owning gold right now. That is the key for this run up. Psychology is changing very fast in many countries (IMHO).
Besides astute investors investing in gold (mainly shorts recently), there could be a wave new comers, uneducated, buying goldstocks AND physical gold (undervelopped countries such as India, China... This world has a huge population now (close to a billion for India, 250 million for Indonesia). Mass irrationality is the big danger for gold here because the astute investors will dive in with them and pull out on time and the poors will get poorer.
Just IMHO
Gaston |
