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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 375.93

-1.8%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (152619)	2/7/2020 5:16:06 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) of 217792

Just in in-tray Vast majority of reports upped price target in the last few days by chump change and remain way below current Tesla price. In the movie "1917" as the two young soldiers trudged across no--man land (at least no live man) they must have wondered how did the dead bodies end up in the arena, and realised that they came the same way the two youngsters did, charging in. -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Cowen on TSLA TP $280 THE COWEN INSIGHT Management continued to provide a rosy outlook with little details on the moving financial pieces or the challenges we expect to see play out with Model 3 demand in 2020. We are raising our estimates on a pull forward of the Model Y launch and FSD revenue recognition. We reiterate our Underperform rating and raise our price target to $280 from $225. Success That is Baked Into the Stock Is Likely to Prove Optimistic We continue to see the stock as extremely overvalued, and the mental gymnastics needed in both growth assumptions and buying in to the "tech" multiple needed to make the math work are staggering for an auto company that has struggled to scale in the past. Historically the stock has "worked" in the planning stages, and not in the execution phase, which we are now entering. Our $280 price target is based off of a blend of a ~20x P/E multiple on our 2022 EPS estimate of $14.95, and a ~20x multiple on our 2022 EBITDA estimate of $6.0bn. We don't see the technology advantage Tesla has on electrification as insurmountable, and more than likely is closed over the next 2-3 years with the next generation of launches by competitors, and believe the company pulling forward the Model Y is likely the "canary in the coal mine" that the story of unlimited demand that management continues to tell is unlikely to result in the mid-term ramp to ~1.5mn vehicles the market appears to be baking into the stock.

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