koan,
If Bernie is so weak, why is he beating all the other candidates? Is he really beating the other candidates or does he just have good name recognition because of his run 4 years ago? Also, the poll that WR posted to one of your responses has Bloomberg with the biggest lead over Trump of all the candidates. If the main business is to beat Trump, from that poll it looks like Bloomberg would be the best bet. It is also easy to be popular with a group when you are promising them something they need for free.
And how do you explain his largest group of donors are teachers? I hope they are among our smartest folls. And of course 45% of college students with Warren getting 22%.
Teachers may be book smart but that doesn't mean that they are politically smart. My sister is more conservative and would probably vote for Trump and she is now a retired teacher. As for college students, Sanders had them at free. I would say that Bloomberg would tell them instead of free, they would have a good job after graduation. I think that is an answer that could resonate with the college crowd.
And he is a huge favorite of the progressives who are also among the most informed. And women love him. You should read the interview piece with James Carville in Vox where he explains that 18% of the population controls 52% of the Senate seats and how that would lead to nothing getting done with Sanders.
Bernie also got two or three times as much donations from the military folks than anyone else and he has by far the most donors and raised 25 million in January alone and added a couple of hundred thousand new donors. He has over a million donors. I think Bloomberg would play well to the military folk as well. People have just been posting that Trump's former Secretary of the Navy has endorsed Bloomberg because he feels he has the best chance of beating Trump.
He appeals to the workers, women, latino's and is closing in on African Americans better than any other Democrat.
I think Bloomberg will appeal very well to those groups of people as well. Bloomberg was the CEO of one of the most diverse cities in the world so I think he can appeal to multiple groups of people.
Those are facts. He has more women under 50 for him than any other candidate.
You are a scientist of sorts, look at the science. Too many people are using visceral emotions and not looking at the science. I think you can find a poll anywhere at this point in time that will support almost any conclusion you want. Many of these polls are looking for a particular thing and ask questions in a way to get the answer that they want or that favors one candidate or response over another. As people here have pointed out, 538, one of the best and brightest, was blindsided by Trump's election because of circumstances that did not become fully evident to pollsters until it was too late.
I am somewhat left of center on most things. I will vote for anyone over Trump. As to the individual candidates, this is my short and sweet feeling about each of them.
I have always liked Biden but he has been prone to gaffs his entire career. This thing with his son and Ukraine is going to taint him in the upcoming elections. The media is against him for some reason(they seemed to be for him prior to his decision to run). One of the articles that I saw recently said that he has disappeared from New Hampshire when he is doing debate prep and strategizing over how to re-energize his campaign. Out of the present candidates, he was my first choice but it is looking like he may fade. He talks too much about getting along with Republicans and doesn't seem to be tough enough on them. Maybe, after they got information from the Treasury, he will see most are not his friends and they will need to see some demonstration of power before they will respect him.
I think Sanders and Warren are too far left to win the general election, no matter what people are saying nowadays. Right now, since they are not the nominee, nobody has been really going after their policies and most people have been friendly in their competition. Once the Republican war machine goes after them, I am fearful that that they will be shredded in a general election. Also, because of the way of electoral college, they are at a disadvantage in many states. I think that there are not enough progressives to win this election outright and you need the center and the center left to win. I don't think they will bring them in unless they run massively to the center after receiving the nomination which I don't see them doing. Sanders is the most popular of the 2 and he has had a heart attack during the campaign which has not done enough to insure people that he is indeed in good enough health to withstand the coming race for the presidency. Warren has also been tainted by her claims of American Indian roots. I like that she stood up to Trump and got her genetics tested but many feel she got played by Trump. Out of the two, I would choose Warren over Sanders but I still think they will have trouble tracking back to the center to get enough votes to win.
I like Buttigieg. He is smart and a fast answerer and could run rings around Trump on the debate stage. But I don't know if America is ready for a gay President. He is in the middle like I am and I the more I see of him, the more I like him. But does he have a broad enough base of appeal to win a general election.
Klobuchar is probably the one I know the least about. While she didn't ask for Franken to resign(according to what I have read), I would have like it if she had been more for the process to go to the ethics committee. She did a good job of baiting Kavanaugh during his hearing.
Bloomberg has been the a surprise for me. Being from the Bronx, I liked what he had accomplished in New York but he seemed somewhat short tempered on some of the shows where he took calls about problems in the city. He has been a Democrat, Republican and Independent and can appeal to all three. He always seemed practical about trying to solve problems. When I lived in New York, things were pretty violent. He was part of the answer(in addition to Giuliani) that helped to clean things up(I had moved away from New York by that time so my impressions are from afar). I like that he got into the race because he didn't like what he was seeing from the present group of candidates and his main motivation appears to be beat Trump. He brings something that the leading candidates don't have, a personal war chest which he is willing to spend. He has stared down the gun lobby and won. He seems to have a way of getting things done. I think he will bring the never Trumpers with him. He has made mistakes but I think he has done a good job of explaining them. His commercials have been on target. He will support the person that comes away with the nomination. He can outspend Trump and the Republicans. I would like to see him on the debate stage and see how he handles himself. But I am going towards Bloomberg as my candidate of choice. And I don't think he would have entered the race if he didn't think he could win it. He did his homework before he declared and I think people would be making a mistake to discount him and his candidacy.
JMO though. Reasonable people can disagree. |
