Update
On 8 Feb 2020, at 11:47 AM, D wrote:
Coronavirus (N) update at 1100hrs HKT on Saturday, Feb 8, 2020
Key Take:
Having fallen for two days previously, the rate of new confirmed globally rose in the last 24hrs. This was principally because of China Mainland, and within China because of Hubei, with new cases roughly stable elsewhere in China.
Between 1030hrs HKT on Saturday, Feb 8, 2020 and our last update yesterday at the same time:
1. The number of new confirmed cases globally totalled 3397 up from 3205 during the previous 24 hrs. Total confirmed cases globally are now 34878.
2. In China Mainland new confirmed cases rose to 3385 from 3143. Total confirmed cases are 34546.
3. For China Mainland, according to preliminary data , subject to revision, total confirmed cases in Hubei province are 24953 and in other provinces and administrative regions 9593. In the most recent 24 hrs there appear to be 2841 new confirmed cases in Hubei compared to 2447 the previous day. Outside Hubei new confirmed cases reported so far today by each individual province and administrative region increased to 719 from 696. Figures released by the central authorities for total new cases in China Mainland and Hubei indicate a lower rate (544. )
4. There were 12 new case outside China Mainland down from 62 the previous day. Total cases outside China Mainland are now 332. No new countries reported confirmed cases. Six countries with existing infections reported more: Hong Kong (24 to 26); Singapore (30 to 33); Malaysia (!$ to 15); Japan (86 to 89 (from the infected cruise ship)); Germany (13 to 14) and UAE (5 to 7). We have doubts about the accuracy of information concerning Coronavirus(N) from many poorer countries, including in this region, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Cambodia, Myanmar etc.
5. Globally fatalities rose from 638 to 724 – all of the increase being in China (mainly Wuhan). Fatalities have risen from 636 to 722 in China Mainland.
6. The fatality rate globally rose slightly overnight to 2.08% from 2.03%.
7. The number of people who have recovered globally is 2085 today, 6% of declared cases, compared to 1536 yesterday.
8. Globally the number of new Coronavirus (N) cases per day is currently about 10 times that of SARS at the same stage of the epidemic. But the death rate is lower (2.08% for Coronavirus (N) v 9.6% for SARS) and the reported spread of the disease outside China slower. Coronavirus (N) has infected 34546 people in China Mainland to date and resulted in the death of 722 people in China compared with a total of 5329 infections and 349 deaths from SARS. The lesson is that the high contagion rate of the diseases is as important as the mortality rate in assessing the crisis. We estimate the RO (number of people infected by one person ill with Coronavirus (N)) at between 3 and 4.
<Wuhan Coronavirus Data - V6.xlsx><Coronavirus (N) update at 1100hrs HKT on Saturday, Feb 8, 2020.docx>
 |
