Gene,
Re: "Why should we all be right this time, we didn't call the fall '96 turn, or the October '97 top? Yet there is compelling evedence to suggest that prices should begin a steady rise midway through the year."
We probably won't all be right this time. But we are more divided this time. This is the first time a lot of us have experienced a semi cycle (my first). Right this second I don't see compelling evidence for much price appreciation in '98 at all. One thing, the Koreans were over-investing and weren't basing their decisions on profitability. If I'm Taiwan, I would proceed very cautiously about further spending in this area. Taiwan can glance over and look at Korea and there are many people in major pain because of this fiasco. Major wealth on their stock exchanges has just disappeared.
Yes, life goes on, and they're bound to eventually work things out. If they change to a market-based philosophy, they'll be much healthier for it, IMO. And they will probably pick up where they left off with good growth. Something we can all look forward to, hopefully.
One more thing, I think the Korean president saw the light that day he said, "I'm not sure if we will go bankrupt tomorrow or the day after tomorrow." I believe that day he was scared to death (and rightfully so).
Now, if Japan will just wake up and smell the coffee.
GM,
About unbridled enthusiasm, hopefully we've all learned something in this area. We never said it would be easy and we never said we would always be right.
John,
I just wanted to thank you for your table too. Also, I read about PEs and growth rates way before the Motley Fool, and really don't follow the Motley Fool, though they seem pretty good and have helped alot of people, i think.
regards,
Teri |
