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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum
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To: B Tate who wrote (1532)1/25/1998 3:44:00 PM
From: Worswick  Read Replies (2) of 9980
 
Bernie thanks so much for the long post at the end of a hard day.

I have spent a considerable amount of time doing investment banking deals in India and Jesus it is tough to get the real numbers. I know. Many times, hell, it is simply impossible.

I'll give you and example. About three years ago I visited one of the top ten investment houses in New York who had said they wanted some advice from an "expert" on India.

I asked them for the state of their research on India and they handed me a book of recommendations done out of their Hong Kong office on Indian companies. The first recommendation was the premier Indian investment bank ICI/ICI. I know from having worked with them that 331'/3% of their loans were non-preforming. Yet, here in the report this bank had a figure of 5% unpreforming loans in the write-up. "We recommend this bank because of all the banks in India... this bank has only 5% of it's loans in the non-preforming category." Dear me.

I believe from something I learnt in Washington from a totally different deal than the one I was wroking on at the time I dealt with the bank that the only reason the bank stayed afloat is that it had capital that it had simply appropriated: but, another story.

At that when asked about investing and setting up a "shop" in India I said to the group that asked me advice, "I think you should perhaps wait until things become simpler. I just wouldn't know where to begin in talking to you about India." Oddly, this house didn't really get into India and they will be spared the inevitable fall out before the world/Asia becomes more transparent.

All of which goes to say Bernie that I understand your dilema and Stitch's in placing bets on sure things in Asia: aka investing.

My best,
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