FYI -- article submitted for publication; feedback appreciated --
Thanks, Roleigh
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The False Assumption Lay People Have That All Utilities Can Operate In
a Manual-Bypass Mode in January, 2000 - Water Supply Implications
Roleigh Martin
1/25/1998
(Text is 1047 words)
Some people have read my article, "The Year 2000 Embedded Systems
Threat to Core Infrastructures" published either in the
January/February 1998 issue of the widely circulated, Year/2000 Journal
or on the Minnesota Software Association website at msa.org.
Others may have visited my web site at
ourworld.compuserve.com (where links to
the prior two articles exist). Among those who have followed my
concerns and to whom I have had the opportunity of speaking with, some
tell me not to worry because the core infrastructures will be able to
operate in a manual, bypass manner if their automation controls fail
because of Year 2000 embedded systems problems.
"Embedded systems" has been best defined by the U.K. Institution of
Electrical Engineers as "... devices used to control, monitor or assist
the operation of equipment, machinery or plant. 'Embedded' reflects the
fact that they are an integral part of the system. In many cases their
embeddedness may be such that their presence is far from obvious to the
casual observer and even the more technically skilled might need to
examine the operation of a piece of equipment for some time before
being able to conclude that an embedded control system was involved in
its functioning." *
The Year/2000 embedded systems problem deals with embedded systems that
are subject to failure because their software is not Year/2000
compliant.
Core infrastructures refers to the utilities that provide us with
electricity, clean water, natural gas, waste removal, phone service,
and so forth. Reliable, large-scale distribution of electricity is the
most important issue, because almost all other utility services depend
on it.
The embedded system Year 2000 problem with core infrastructures
concerns equipment with embedded control devices used by utilities that
will operate improperly (causing equipment failure or worse) after the
turn of the century, or in some cases after 1/1/1999 or even other
dates.
I have received in-depth reports from three investigators who work
inside the electric utility industry and whose job is embedded systems
Year 2000 compliance. All three of these individuals report that my
web site material is either accurate or when not, that my problem is
that I am missing additional factors to be concerned about -- that is,
that I am understating the problem! The material I have received is
being reviewed by lawyers whom are helping me on a voluntary basis as
to how to safely make use of the material. However, one quote from the
investigators needs to be released now. One investigator reported that
a new HVAC system failed in year 2000 testing and wrote:
"New HVAC machines (as well as others) do not always contain manual
override for 'on' position. Work-arounds are impossible without
costly replacement. Lead time on replacement of such machines has
put several utilities into guaranteed non-compliance."
A HVAC is a heating/ventilation/air-conditioning system. Without HVACs
working, rooms containing electronic sensors and heat-sensitive data
processing equipment can overheat and start malfunctioning.
Now, as always, what is the impact of non-compliance? In some cases,
it only impacts the rollover across centuries, but in other cases it
can impact ongoing operation in the new century (even if it was shut
down for the rollover hour) for various reasons too technical for
purposes of this article.
Bottom line: it is foolish not to be concerned about this problem if
you and your family value electricity. Some people act as if it would
not be analogous to preparing for a winter campout in a unheated cabin.
But these people forget the water issue--most winter camping sites have
hand-operated water pumps. If your family is dependent upon city
water, then chances are that electricity is needed to maintain water
pressure for the water has to be pumped up into water towers so that
gravity thereafter can maintain water pressure.
In conventional power outages, the problem is typically caused by
events external to the power plant and a city-wide outage is very rare.
In conventional power outages, backup equipment identical to the failed
equipment is available for replacement. In a Year-2000 outage, an
outage could be caused by equipment inside the power plant where the
same Year-2000 noncompliance flaw exists in the replacement equipment.
If this is the case, compliant-replaceable equipment might either have
to be custom made or purchased and it might not fit in exactly right
with the other equipment interacting with the failed equipment. In
other words, a variety of new equipment might be needed with long lead
times required. A Year-2000 outage could mean a prolonged period
without electricity for the area unless the power grid can supply the
area previously served by the downed power plant--but if an abundant
number of other power plants across the nation have the same problem?
You get the picture.
Although most water utilities probably have backup generators, for how
long a period are they prepared for? How long can your city go without
city-wide provided electricity and maintain water pressure? In a
sub-zero weather in January 2000, how long would a period of a lack of
water pressure take before becoming a city-wide disaster? Even if the
electric utilities had their act together and water pressure was okay,
will the water utilities' equipment work after 1/2000 so that the water
is clean?
Steve Gravelle, in the 9/10/1997 issue of the Cedar Rapids Gazette
newspaper in Iowa, wrote about the loss of electricity and its' impact
on water. "With no heat, residents in older homes and mobile homes
turn on their water to prevent their pipes from freezing. But with no
electricity, pumps can't replenish the water towers, and Marion soon
runs out of water. And when power is restored, the entire water system
must be flushed and treated to prevent contamination." Quoting Ned
Wright, Linn County Director of Emergency Management: "'The power may
be out for five days,' Wright said, 'but you can't drink the water for
seven.'"
It is the above reasons that principally drives me to continue this
campaign. I live in the coldest state in the nation (a Minnesota city
has the record as the coldest city in the nation!). As long as the
experts refuse to discuss their preparations and the inspection,
remedy, and fallback measures being taken--if any, I am seriously
concerned. You should too if you value electricity and city-provided
water.
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* Special thanks to David Spinks for providing this definition of
embedded systems. Thanks also to Karl E. Vogel for his help with some
of the other definition paragraphs.
About the author:
Roleigh Martin, M.A., is a software engineer consultant who has written
for The Year/2000 Journal and the Minnesota Software Association's
publications on the Year 2000 embedded systems threat to core
infrastructures. He has a web page at
ourworld.compuserve.com where these two
articles can be read. Prior to his data processing career over 20 years
ago, he was a research sociologist employed at various research centers
and was a consultant for a National Science Foundation grant on system
modeling. Over the years, he has done various freelance articles. |
