| | | At this juncture seems the safer assumption w/r to the novel virus should be that is shall spread, and cull, and if so, demand for everything would go down, including contract workers, restaurant / hospitality staff, etc etc, and there might be issues w/ itinerant workers, so whilst folks might lose higher paying jobs, should they be willing, can fill lower paying positions but at higher than itinerant working pay.
If so, deflation of higher wages and inflation of lower compensation, causing deflation of frivolity and inflation of necessity. Win-win, or lose-lose, depending of POV.
Domestically-oriented businesses in HK are going bankrupt or closing ahead of bankruptcy. School bus companies hard up, along w/ schools, and never mind certain types of restaurants, shops, etc etc, forget saunas, and put a fork in live concerts ... even demonstrations are out of business.
I cannot imagine why anyone would want to buy much of capital goods under the circumstances.
Should such circumstance go global, to places where folks cannot last longer than 12 months w/o income, then ... OMG.
Given above should be base case premise, officialdom must step in w/ helicopter money to hold everything together.
Gold, i think, is appropriately rising, and in good order, w/o unseemly panic, because the premise is trending true infection case by infection case. |
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