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Technology Stocks : OLED Universal Display Corp

OLED 147.25

+0.3%

2:09 PM EDT

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brasspenny

Lance Bredvold

To: I'manoledguy who wrote (24155)	2/26/2020 6:38:13 PM
From: A.J. Mullen	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 29657

I believe the disease will get almost everywhere. Now it's out of China, it'll disperse faster. Here's a paper estimating that between 2/3 and 3/4 of cases leaving China are undetected, imperial.ac.uk. The link Slacker posted, worldometers.info was useful. The default presentation is linear. The appropriate scale is logarithmic. A new disease spreads in proportion to the number of infected - it's exponential. Plotting on a log scale gives a straight line and the gradient equals the transmission rate - the number of new cases created by each infected person. Looking at the new cases plotted on a log scale gives a straight line for the first ten days or so, then the line bends - suggesting the transmission rate declining. Mortality also shows a reduced rate of increase. It would be expected to lag new cases. It looks like China is getting on top of the disease. Or was, things might change now that China is relaxing migration controls and allowing factories to restart. More worrying is the data are dominated by China. The data from other countries are swamped. We can expect the number of cases to grow exponentially in every country it is introduced - at least initially, and I doubt other countries will be able to suppress transmission as effectively as China. Still, self-preservation will likely reduce attraction of crowds and reduce transmission. Ashley

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