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General market risk is still very high.
The Asian flu season may last all year.
Many economists think we will fall into
recession this year - see Barron's Roundtable
for example, or Lester Thurow in NY Review of
Books.
The immediate credit crunch may be over for the
moment, but everyone in Asia is going to need to
export like hell to get back to healthy economic
status. Japan will not be open to increased
imports. (Plus the Japanese banking system is
still pretty much rotten to the core and the Japanese
government has so far demonstrated total inability to
even own up to let alone fix their financial system).
The US is the biggest open market in the world and
everybody is going to need to export into here.
It seems like a reasonably probable scenerio that
even if the roof doesn't continue to cave in in Asia,
that we end up with a steeply increasing trade deficit,
slowing growth, and start losing lots of jobs. This
will bring roaches like Ross Perot, Pat Buchanan et al
out in droves screaming about closed asian markets.
Bill C will be too busy trying to stay in office
to be very effective in combatting this trend.
I like IDTI and like it very much at this price and with
the massive accumulation at 12-12 1/8 of last week.
But I'm quite scared that Clinton's problems along with
continued possible crises and general mid term economic
changes in Asia - we will only start to see those effecting
us gradually in the months ahead - might cause a fairly
ugly correction in the market as a whole, and IDTI is
as likely or more likely to sell off as the rest of the
market, notwithstanding it's recent strength.
At this point I am really quite nervious about the whole
market tanking. A number of noted market watchers are
also looking for sideways motion or worse. Yeah, maybe
we can climb this 'wall of worry', but things surely
are much less safe than they were the last 2 years,
where we saw idti sell off 3-4 times or more even then.
Don't the others on this thread have any feelings of
trepidation about the above? I guess the other school
of thought thinks than any economic slowdown will result
in rates cuts which will bouy the market. I usually seem
to err on the side of hyper optimism, but I'm quite
nervious these days. This is a little off topic, but
heck it's a lot more germain to our investments than
anybody's personal opinion of BC and his morality/politics
whatever. Tho if Starr really goes for blood and has much
real support in the Senate this could really drag out
and it could be one more factor which could turn market
sentiment really sour. If another meltdown like Oct
happens, will y'all be ready to rush in the next day to
buy???? Inquiring minds need to know! |
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