Regards Best Case:
I think we are too early to predict as viral titer in 2 weeks and recovery, vs. reinfection so far hasn't been addressed. Viral latency, and reemergence of symptoms, or true re-infection questions still not answered. I will investigate this more. Even at 39,000 recovered, the time of reporting is suspect if induction period is/was 2-3 weeks.
Not so great case:
Is likely side of scenario, but not sure if it paints full picture. At what point does prevention/quarantine become more/less pragmatic than treatment-infection new normal? Iran,,, and now 2 cases in USA of unknown origin suggest ship may be steering it's way in this direction. This transition is where the devil is in the details. 6 month-9 month battle ahead(treatment, drugs, vaccines), is more like 1-2 month decision point.
10X overblown as TJ has suggested to me seems more like 10X overblown decision to try and contain, while determining if treatment is even possible.
What this looks like to supply chain disruption, and long term outlook for supply chain globalism is hard to tell. Concern over supply chain quality in China, pushed companies to go all-in on partnership lock-ups,,, they are now looking like fools holding their basket of omelets. That discussion in board rooms is going to be a very interesting one. The push for sensitive industries to on-shore via trade war was already happening, but not with conviction(at least on my side 3-4 projects of just that,,, slow rolling but never dead..) Whether that will mean off-shore-more, or on-shore cheaper remains to be seen.
This will get very very political,,, so expect sensitive industries to lead the charge. Cost-of-goods is not always cost of goods. Much assumption about chinese supply chains China price is not fully baked,,, pharma could care less,,, yes i said it,, and is main buyer of chinese fine chemicals. Low cost industries already low costed elsewhere.
Often overlooked here is the chinese consumer, and this is the big one for consumer tech and globalism. To me this is where the not-so-great case finds it's footing. Chinese consumer is needed, despite fat man on island stories,,,,and can't see globalist desire for chinese consumer changing. As a result, whole world has vested interest in avoiding worst case, and shooting for best case.
Worst Case:
Can't not believe in moon landing. Too hard for me to accept, as consequence too big. Treatment/Epidemiology learning curve has almost been summited. |
