Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: dwight vickers who wrote (19806)	1/25/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (3) of 42771

(Off Topic) Asia Update --- I'm sure you are not longing for this! Indonesia--- Rupiah down 15%. All foriegn lending to Indonesia is now frozen. Indonesia spent $5-6 billion last week to defend the rupiah. So much for the IMF money. Poof gone. Banks have now stoped conducting transactions in rupiah. Essentially this means Indonesia is soon going to be unable to import anything. Now you know why people ran out on the first day of the crisis to empty the store shelves of all food. Watch your newspapers for the chaos around the corner. Korea--- New President reveals true dimension of the problem predicts no economic recovery before the year 2000. Domestic $$$ denominated debt is put at $310 billion with some $60 billion already non-performing. Foriegn $$$ denominated debt is another $153 billion. All figured at 1700 won to the $$$. IMF bailout is only $57 billion. You do the math, the country is in technical default headed for real default. Any suggestions as to how the government can absorb $463 billion in dollar loans? Japan--- The government has issued $253 billion in credits to banks to generate liquidity. It has eased capital reserve requirements allowing the domestic banks to escape the 8% capital reserve requirement that goes into effect on March 31st and is allowing them to use real estate against capital reserve requirments. Moreover rumors lifting the Nikkei are that the government will use postal insurance accounts to directly invest in the stock market. Given the recent decline of the $$$ vs the yen and the movement of Treasury yields and rumors of Japan printing money, it all smells like a full fledged last ditch attempt to refloat the banking system in the traditional Japanese way. No banks will be allowed to fail. =============== Looks to me like an inflating bubble. Which pin will prick the bubble ---- Indonesia, Hong Kong, Korea, or Japan. Incidentally watch for Russia to be the first Western domino to fall.

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