Wayne, I don't think Radica sold over 4 million Fishing games in FY97. According to the 20-F, total sales for the Sports category were 3.99 million units, and that includes all the Fishing models plus Golf and Bowling and probably some other non-Fishing games. In FY96, this same category had sales of only 734,000 units. Of course, most of the sales in FY97 had to be Fishing games, so I'll hazard a guess of 3.25-3.5 million, with the rest being Golf, Bowling and whatever.
Given the 30 million anglers in the US, Radica still has 26 million or so to sell to, not counting the non-fishers who might also buy the game. Going forward, I would expect a leveling off or decline in the sales of Bass Fishin', as the superior Lunker Bass replaces it in the Wal-Marts (question to Wal-Mart shoppers, if they stock Lunker Bass, do they still have Bass Fishin' on the shelves?). Still, sales of 6 million+ Fishing units seems possible in FY98, 8 million would be phenomenal, and 10 million, while certainly desirable, seems unlikely.
Radica has reorganized their games and put Fishing in its own sales category. Maybe if enough people beg him, David will report the sales details by product category in the quarterly 6-K, so we could really track sales trends by product line. I did an analysis of the Average Selling Price for Radica games by category, based on the info in the 20-F, going back 4 years, with some interesting results. If I can figure out how to post a table here, I'll do so and you might find it interesting. If we could track ASP by product category on a quarterly basis, combined with some unit sales projections based on the increased production capabilities, it would be another method to help project sales and earnings.
Dennis |
