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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 309.36+2.2%4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (84697)3/4/2020 9:10:07 PM
From: Elroy  Read Replies (1) of 95520
 
It's not unlikely that due to the spread of coronavirus, especially in China and Korea, that manufacturing of chips will be curtailed.

The major NAND spot price rise occurred in Nov/Dec last year, prior to the coronavirus development as a major issue. And....NAND spot prices have continued to rise modestly despite the virus being a big topic in the past few weeks.

Don't ALL the NAND makers have lots of (too much) inventory on hand today, and they plan to bring inventory down by selling more than they produce? If the spot price means anything, they will be able to do that NOW at prices comparable to Dec 2018 levels. At those price levels they all made heaps of profits and cash in Dec 2018. Why doesn't the market expect the exact same thing - only more since they likely have a higher production volume and also higher inventories today?

Going forward the virus may curtail NAND production. Maybe. Who knows? I haven't read about any major NAND fabs being shut down due to the virus. It's possible, but if it happens I think we would read about it.

Regardless, shouldn't the NAND makers print money in Q1 and Q2 2020 if real prices per GB are the actually the same as what they were in Dec 2018?
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