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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk
SOXL 34.35-6.8%Nov 18 4:00 PM EST
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To: The Barracuda™ who wrote (133045)3/7/2020 2:20:22 PM
From: Sun Tzu2 Recommendations

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benwood
kimberley

  Read Replies (1) of 206905
 
Not quite. The mortality rate is only half of the equation. The other half is how contagious it is. Preliminary results show that it is between 2x - 4x more contagious than normal flu, and it is 20x - 40x more deadly than flu. Because contagion is an exponential growth, even a slight increase in the rate will have a huge impact. Each person who catches flu infects about 1.3 more people. Each person who has COVID-19 infects about 2.4 people (low end estimate). In contrast, while ebola is very deadly, it spreads about half as slowly as HIV.

So combining the mortality rate with the contagiousness, you can have a very problematic pandemic. People like the originator of that comment should stop being armchair epidemiologist and listen to the experts.

On a related note, I am reasonably sure that I have COVID-19. My wife went to visit her close friend who had just returned from Iran (this was just before Iran became known as an epicenter of the disease). 4 days later she fell very ill with all the symptoms of COVID-19. 3 days after that, I fell ill with the same symptoms. I get my flu shot every year and normally have a pretty good immune system. And I was not even physical with her, just normal interactions. So this is a very contagious disease.
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