I have not decided whether we are dealing w/ a bear or a pause in the bull
operationally am playing it as a pause but carefully
Armstrong says it is a pause, and I find his reasoning of merit
But if mismanaged, can certainly be a bear.
But if USD crashes, then the equity market should rise unless Europe deals with the issues more successfully which I doubt
and, of course, should USD crater, then gold ...
Let's see.
In the meantime ...
Sent: Tuesday, March 10, 2020 12:60 PM
Subject: Worst Stock Market Drop Ever! McHugh's Monday Market Newsletter, March 9th
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Today's Market Comments:
Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down has started with a black swan health pandemic, an oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, and a prescription drug trade war with China. Stocks just finished the greatest daily point decline in the history of the stock market Monday, March 9th. The S&P 500 lost 7.6%, the Industrials lost 7.8%. So far the crash has taken 19.3% off the stock market over the past two weeks. This has occurred as there are two Hindenburg Omen stock market crash signals on the clock simultaneously. This plunge has wiped out all the gains in the Industrials since November 28th, 2017, almost two and a half years of gains in two weeks. $2.5 trillion was wiped on Monday, and since this crash started, $7.0 trillion of wealth has been erased. Stocks opened down 2,000 points as the market opened Monday, and trading was immediately halted at 9:34 a.m. EDT. It reopened at 9:47 am. It was the first time a circuit breaker was hit since 1997, before 9-11, and before the great Recession of 2007 to 2009. The Financial sector of the S&P 500 has crashed 27% over the past two weeks. Oil had its worst one-day plunge since 1991. Mining stocks fell sharply, Gold was up modestly and Silver was down.
The plunge from the March 4th highs, which is where Minor degree wave 2-up topped, has seen a complete five wave decline into Monday's low, which we label Minuette wave i-down of 3-down. Wave ii-up is next and could rise to fill the opening gap from Monday, March 9th. Once ii-up tops, a massive wave iii-down of 3-down will occur.
U.S. Bonds and the 10 year Treasury hit all-time highs Monday, with interest rates on these long-term securities dropping below 1.00%, screaming the message that a severe Recession / Depression is starting.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Sell signal March 9th, 2020 and remain there Monday, March 9th, 2020. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Thursday, March 5th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on March 9th, 2020, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on March 9th, 2020. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Thursday, February 27th, and remains there Monday, March 9th, down 7 points (out of a possible 9 points), to negative -28. It will need to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.
Demand Power fell 10 to 395 Monday while Supply Pressure rose an extraordinary 53 to 570 telling us Monday's Blue Chip decline was powerful with the Plunge Protection Team the primary buyer, as the market failed to provide buyers. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal February 24th, and remains there Monday, March 9th, 2020.
The HUI generated a key trend-finder indicator Sell signal March 9th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal February 28th, 2020, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on March 9th, 2020. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short signal March 9th. On Monday, March 9th, Demand Power fell 7 to 437 while Supply Pressure rose 17 to 465, telling us Monday's HUI decline was powerful.
DJIA PPI Fell 92 to negative -123.58, on a Sell
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 0.00 Slow 5.33 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 0.00 Slow 12.22 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 0.00
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 10.00
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 3.33
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 7 to Negative -28, On a Sell
Demand Power Fell 10 to 395, Supply Pressure Up 53 to 570 Sell
McClellan Oscillator Rose to negative - 379.15
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 159.55
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 37.53, an "ON" signal
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator - 1085.0 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 15 New Lows 1620
Today's Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Sell signal Thursday, March 5th, 2020, and remain there March 9th, 2020. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on March 5th, 2020, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on February 21st, 2020 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on February 21st, 2020. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short positions signal Monday, February 24th and remains there March 9th. On Monday, March 9th, Demand Power Fell 7 to 433, while Supply Pressure Rose 34 to 545, telling us Monday's decline was powerful with the PPT the primary buyer.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal February 25th, 2020, and needs to fall below negative - 5.0 for a new Sell. It remained at negative -39.4 on Monday, March 9th.
NDX PPI Fell 47 to 116.17, On a Sell
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 2.44 Slow 10.24 On a Sell
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 2.38 Slow 6.19 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator - 39.4 On a Sell
NDX Demand Power Fell 7 to 433, Supply Pressure Up 34 to 545 Sell
RUT PPI Fell 47 to + 45.41, on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -771.60, On a Sell
Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal March 9th, 2020.
HUI PPI Fell 10 to + 213.57 on a Sell .
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00, Slow 44.44 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Fell 7 to 437; Supply Pressure Up 17 to 465 Neutral |
