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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 375.93

-1.8%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: RetiredNow who wrote (154265)	3/13/2020 5:54:03 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) of 217780

Sort of the point of my bothering with poking at the ETF charts is trying to answer the question you asked. Having made the effort now, I don't think there's any problem with the "structure" of the ETFs. Instead, the differences I'm noting are the reflections in market data of "real" things in the market... it just requires a bit of analysis to sort out what those things are... and what they mean. Here's what I found that was immediately useful to me... First, I applied that focus in considering what I saw happening in the gold market. On Wednesday I posted... A Warning... about the shift I'd seen occur in the gold/silver ratio... so on Wednesday I was already expecting to see a larger 'Repocalyse" driven event occur in the market on Thursday. And that's what we got. I used that awareness to sell SQQQ near the peak on Thursday... expecting the unfolding of the Repo Risk Event (actually a locking up of liquidity leaving gold the most acceptable collateral for at risk counterparties) would drive a reaction... and that reaction would operate to counter the market effects seen today from the accelerating liquidation of gold being used as replacement collateral. That's in the news now... that there's going to be a big Repo Ramp planned for tomorrow... which probably will damp the downward flow in stocks on Friday. Got help us if it doesn't. And that Repo Response Event or Ramp might also alter the pressure that's been causing the accelerating gold liquidation that we saw the prior few days. That's my guess. It kills me to sell the SQQQ, because I don't think the decline is anywhere close to being over... and it means idling the cash until settlement, when I'd rather keep it at work... even if not at the cost of growing risk. But I tempered the analysis in deciding with the awareness that if they didn't do a Repo Ramp... the default risks would grow enough that I wouldn't want to be holding the risk in anything but cash anyway. The Repo Ramp will likely work to fend that still growing default risk off for a few more days... and I'll decide then whether to reapply the cash in an inverse ETF, hold it, or bottom fish for shares even while the lake is still being drained... knowing the fish will get continue getting more concentrated (and hungrier) for a while... If the market bounces well tomorrow ? I'll watch DPK... which has an amazing chart over the last few days. Today, I spent my time digging into the chart questions a bit more... with a comparison and closer analysis of the oil related charts versus the gold related charts. I'll post that soon... after thinking about it a bit more, and editing it a bit more...

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