Teri,
Re:"He said he expected the industry would cut its 1998 capital expenditure
plan by an estimated $20 billion."
Many estimates came out in '96 only to be proven horribly wrong; the industry came back sooner than expected and AMAT could have a record qtr this qtr. and record year if company guidance is on-track. During periods of skepticm and uncertainty(Read:now), projections are racheted far down since the market does not like ANY surprises. One has to ask themselves, why don't projections like the one above and statements from AMAT mgt reconcile?? If AMAT is wrong they are subject to lawsuits. It's in their best interest to be as accuruate as possible. And as of today, they are still predicting a record year.
I am simply skeptical that the analysts are going to finally get it right this time. That would be a first.
Secondly, Brooks Automation (BRKS), VECO, EGLS, SVGI, and UTEK are some
of the secondary semi-equips that are trading at or near Book Value.
Generally, over the past several years, these stocks have traded as a
group (in-sync).
They trade in sync to a point. AMAT is not your average equipment company and it shows in their price. While others have had a bad time weathering this downturn, AMAT is gaining market share and maintaining their GM, reasons why I do not believe AMAT will come close to BV or 1X rev. I think it is faulty reasoning to paint a wide swath and talk in general terms about anything, especially the prices of equipment cos. relative to BV or some other arbitrary standard. These cos. have, and will continue to trade in unison to a great extent. This does not mean all will achieve equal lows when they finally reach their nadir.
Regards,
Brian |
