Actually I knew that, but I'm not really depending on the msm to get my information. I'm trying my best to stick to med and scientific journal articles, which are peer reviewed, as well as following physicians, scientist, and epidemiologist on twitter. In other words, people that don't have an agenda. It's served me well so far.
I wish people would just stop with the political angle. Our government is doing a great job with a lousy situation, something that we haven't faced in decades. Of course mistakes have been made - there isn't a country in the world that doesn't wish they could go back and do things differently sometimes. But if I am unhappy with the response at times, it doesn't mean I want them to fail...on the contrary I hope I am very wrong, and you guys can laugh at me for the next 20 years, and I'll own it. Most of you know me at least a little, and I do not want bad things to happen in this country. I don't want our health system to be overrun, and I certainly don't want lasting damage to our economy. However, this is a field I do know something about, and I am so concerned when I hear people compare this to the flu. If you take the information that we have so far - and keep in mind that information is changing daily as we learn more, then we are currently very close to a situation that could overwhelm our healthcare system. Lee is right when he says we could very easily see a situation where we don't have enough ventilators. If real world terms, if a patient needs a ventilator, no matter what their diagnosis is, and there isn't one available, then that patient will die. It's that simple. We have fewer than 1 million hospital beds in our country, and around 10% of those are ICU beds. That's a given that we can't change overnight, so if the cases keep rising exponentially, as they are now, we will be in the situation Italy is.
It doesn't mean we all need to think the end of the world is near...but no one needs to hold an extreme view, one way or the other. Be willing to be flexible with your thinking about a situation...I've always admired how you can go from bull to bear and back again as the situation warrants. We need to be open to the fact that this situation is very fluid, so it's ok to change your views as we get more information. (and GZ, I'm not speaking of you personally, just saying people in general need to be open that this may in fact be more serious that any of us thought originally). An article written in early February might not be as accurate now as it was then. President Trump has changed his stance, as he received more information. That's all I'm saying the rest of us should do. Right now it's all about flattening the growth curve. The virus is here, but if we can slow down the spread, it will make a real difference in our ability to respond. The vast majority of people that catch it will recover just fine, but other people are at risk, and it's not limited to people over 70. It's those that progress to a more critical illness that will stretch our resources. We need to keep that number as low as possible.
Bottom line, in public health, you always want to err on the side of over-reaction vs under-reaction, because the outcomes involve life or death. Be thankful that we have people like Dr. Fauci at the front lines, and let's heed what he is telling us. President Trump is listening to him, so the rest of us should as well. The short term pain is well worth it vs the longer term pain we could have if we don't get this under control soon.
Be well, everyone. I sincerely hope that all of you can look back on this and say I was wrong. I promise you I hope that what I'm afraid of doesn't materialize.
Kim |
