Do not know the score yet either. I may be underwater for a while-- but have thought through below:
Am not even close to 20% cash in market,,,, I cannot see doing that,,, in like ever. Learnt my lesson last time and this time. I would not be holding equities, except premium positions and a few other ideas,,,
At same time my comments on structural shortages and where we are IMO:
1.) Yes, demand is going to be hammered, as demand is hammered hoarding stockpiling even among commercial houses,, as a sport, probably wise. If recall from 1929, crash gold hoarding is primary driver. I do not think we have the same,,, except for flight to dollar,,, but day of reckoning over dollar is more covert,,, but consequence on dollar more apparent... thus fueling more hoarding.
Given market is broken,,, can expect a squeeze? Can't plan on it. Surely, am watching as no love or attention is being given. Seems to be playing coy to me.
2.) Structural shortage: Hey Bob moment, in platinum has not even a whiff of a hint,,, Surely BASF may have something something,,, but if only BASF,,,then,,, then,,, who else is going to let BASF win? It seems too Theranos to me. One thing is for certain, when Bob is about to be standing in bread line, he's not partying in his lab coat. Given CV sucking up the newly minted brains and pharma is in vogue,,, don't see innovation changing this problem soon,,, and even if changing,,, can almost bet a switch,,,may not be a win net net $ yet. if need 2X Pt, to replace 1X Pd, trade is already underwater.
3.) As said when I got in,,, am building money fort,,,, is more like 5-10%, Is more similar to Erita, but more like big Jack, with proceeds from zigzagging,,, head shots, etc. zigzagging with head shots is my cloud ATM. Macro long term value building seems wise,,, surely this is unwinding on way to 2026, 2032, and not main event, and even if main event, unfair exchange isn't going to fix shortage. Can plan for script working way it has? If can, then hat tip.
4.) Pause vs. stop vs. time for crash to resolve vs. shortage: This one has me more shell shocked-- really have no guess as to how long. The consequences to me are more shocking than the outcome. But tend to have faith in humans. If chinese can fix this, in a few months,,,, then rest of world can manage. This is a pimple on the arse of influenza even if max score in USA. Will it change things? Yes. Is it very serious? Yes. Is it a serious threat to US healthcare and it's supply chains. Will it forever change the structurally broken system of healthcare and stagnant wages for Team USA? Just have to watch. And so goes is every other infectious disease. I do not see this as being an annual event. I could be wrong,,, but I am planning to be right,,, because it is only way to survive. |
