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To be clear - I'm not pricing in ZERO as much as saying we might have only fallen 50% from where we will end up.
I don't think we've had a secular panic. It's just been more like a numbness - or shell shock. Public wondering wtf to do.
The virus only being a trigger for the inevitable correction that was coming (and necessary) The trigger just happened to detonate a multitude of blasting caps that set of dynamite everywhere. What we've seen so far seems only to be the result of underlying weaknesses in the system that have never been fixed.
As I said, my boomer friends, to date, seem very passive about the downdraft, which is indicative of confidence in the system to operate as per usual. But what is "usual" about what is happening? California and other states not going to shelter in place. Nothing like this has ever taken place -- how do you price it??
Additionally, as I mentioned previously, last night I noticed lots of traders all bulled up for today.
Given there's been no panic yet and folks like wacky wooly spouting stuff like this (last nite)
futs and asian markets coming back......the vast fraud perpetrated on the investing public with the recent flu viris alibied decline is why exchange insiders live in big houses.....the preparations for the coming meltup is underway
Not really anything new there since he's a permabull and the market always recovers and grinds up over time. When he's right on a call like that he bookmarks it and you hear about if for the rest of his life - if's he's wrong, well its just swept under the carpet.
(yes I lurk -- that's how I take the market temp and get my bearings)
Today when I went to the local supermarket they nearly out of milk, no egg, no pasta, no rice, meat dept picked over (but plenty of chicken) So all I got there was coffee and vodka.
So went to another market that opens the first hour for seniors over 60 and there was big line waiting to go in. Picked up a few items and then had to stand in long checkout line. Guy behind me says he went to Costco and there were over 500 people in line before the open and they were told they would be let in 180 at a time.
No toilet paper to be had anywhere right now (paper towels, napkins, and of course wipes, are non-existent as well).
I dialogues with 3 nursed today: my sister, one of my goddaughters, and a godson's wife. Things are not going so well in the health care field. One of them is a nurse in labor and delivery and she isn't allowed to wear a mask because they don't have enuf. Another said all surgeries cancelled and only admitting the sick (but they do have face masks)
All in all ---> its a shitstorm out there.
And this pretty much sums up the US right now (whether or not its staged)
If this is a bear market -- then we're only at around the equivalent of August of 2008 --- and there's a lot more down beneath us.
So, I suspect next week will be the beginning of the bear market unless a rabbit is pulled out of a hat.
