For me, the most interesting question now is whether the data from China proves correct or not, because it appears they have nearly containment (41+ listed yesterday), and it appears their industry is getting back towards normal. IF, and its a very big IF IMHO, this is correct, then it will have shown the world that draconian measures for a relatively brief period can in fact win the battle.
Which then sets up the very nice contrast between societies that I originally speculated would play out: A society which either through their natural social leanings, or through government control, or a combo of both, it doesn't matter which, can modify their behavior drastically, can cure the problem and then get back to work. America doesn't fall into that category, so I expect, as we are already seeing, that we will have a much poorer response, and thus get rewarded with a much longer and more damaging experience. I doubt the current measures in the USA can match Italy's current response which seems to be flat-lining at a doubling every 6 days. The USA will take the pole position of most cases of any country by about next weekend, and even if we then roll over to a doubling every 6 days, its still headed for the moon. Once we get to 1M cases, which isn't that far out, I think even the Red States and the Beer Virus Senators will change their tune.
Both HK (+17 to 273) and Taiwan (+18 to 153) are growing again, so that is not encouraging. |
