Coronavirus / COVID-19 Pandemic Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Coronavirus / COVID-19 Pandemic

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To: zax who wrote (140)	3/21/2020 10:27:31 AM
From: zax	Read Replies (2) of 22882

I make no representation of the chart in red below, other than that it is a curve fitting exercise of a data set to the normalized weighted sums of two log-normal probability distributions, using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. It completely ignores a baseline of 406. Today's data point caused the peak height to dramatically revise downward. This would imply that the large increases in the red curve will decelerate after one or two more data points. The red curve will not be fittable to the blue curve beyond that, because the blue curve represents a cumulative number; the log-normal will return to baseline. This model may be completely invalid, and it is also possible that tomorrow's numbers will result in a completely different fit. The RMS error today is 467.87 (33.4).

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