THE SOCRATES PREMIUM OVERVIEW COMMENTARY, NY GOLD NEAREST FUTURES AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Mar. 20, 2020: The NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today at 148460 is immediately trading down about 2.52% for the year from last year's closing of 152310. Reflecting on the Reversal System, the last Reversal on the Yearly level to be elected was Bullish. The Quarterly level also shows the last Reversal to be elected was Bullish. On the Monthly level, the last Reversal to be elected was also Bullish showing that the long-term level is still positive. The Weekly level shows that the last Reversal to be elected was Bearish showing that the mid-term level is still negative. So far, this market has exceeded the previous year's high holding above last year's low. Nevertheless, this market is trading below last year's closing.

Always remember that the true definition of a bull or bear market is defined by its international value expressed in the major currencies. A market which is rising in proportion to the decline in the local currency is merely a market readjusting to the decline in the value of the currency. Do not be fooled by this type of trend for it is merely currency inflation given everything has a true international value which will be arbitraged.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 148976, 149400, and 153733 for this next trading session. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 147593 and 147813. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 148893 154003. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

OVERVIEW ANALYSIS

The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 151940 and closed higher after the previous low made on Thu. 19th but it finished still weak on the close. Nonetheless, the market remains negative on our system indicators with still some underlying support. This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 170430. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.

Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 147880
Previous... 153310
Tomorrow... 150555

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 146633
Weekly ....... -154810
Monthly ...... 147523
Quarterly .... 130910
Yearly ....... 112340

Note: Negative means the market is trading below on that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Up to this moment in time, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 145970 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.

Immediately, we have broken below last week's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Weekly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 650 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A weekly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone. Up to this moment in time, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 152800 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

RECREATING TIME

Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.

Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Fri. 20th would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.

We closed the previous month at 158790 after making a new high up two month from the low established back in January during 2019 at 151900. Currently, this market is still in a bullish posture above all our monthly indicating ranges. . The next Monthly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 126780 whereas the next Monthly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 144610.

END OF QUARTER

. The projected overhead technical resistance stands at 161356. The projected technical support resides at 147833. The next Quarterly Minor Bullish Reversal stands at 199984. The next Quarterly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 114150 whereas the next Quarterly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 120140. Immediately, the market is somewhat bullish on our indicating range models. However, the monthly level remains in a very bullish posture yet the weekly level is clearly bearish. We also have a Minor Monthly Bearish which is closer to the market right now. This resides at 126780 and therefore, even a month-end closing below this would signal a further retest of support is likely. Still, we do see underlying support forming in the 134970

Therefore, when we put this all together, the various timing levels require our focus on the following Bearish Reversals for the close of this quarter. The numbers to watch are: 144610 and 120140.

BROADER OVERVIEW

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Nearest Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2019, the market has pulled back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2019.

This market still remains in a broader bullish posture warranting a classification as a Bull Market. Nonetheless, the Weekly level on the indicating models shows inherent weakness with signs of overhead resistance at this point in time. However, the last reversal to be elected on the Weekly level was a Bearish the week of March 16th.

This past year alone, saw a price decline of about 7.45%.

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

After the historical high was established during 2020, a major low was created on 03/16/2020 at 145090 which was 4 days from that major high. Currently, the market has yet to retest this low during the past 4 sessions.

Looking at our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday highs for the past 4 days in price. The low on our Energy Model took place 03/19/2020. Therefore, this immediate rally may prove to be short-term unless this model begins to create new historic highs.

OVERALL TREND

The NY Gold Nearest Futures is still in a bullish position on yearly level of our model suggesting the trend has not been reversed. The NY Gold Nearest Futures has exceeded last year's high making the 165336 years up. On the quarterly short-term level, this market is still bullish while the broader term is neutral to bullish. Turning to the monthly level, this market remains in a bullish position. The NY Gold Nearest Futures is in bearish position on the weekly short-term level of our model while the broader term is also neutral to bearish. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.

YEARLY TIMING ANALYSIS

YEARLY TIMING ANALYSIS

On the subject of the longer-term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2022, 2025, 2028 and 2030. Considering all factors, there is a possibility of a further decline moving into 2022 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2025. This pattern becomes a possibility if last year's low of 126730 is penetrated even intraday.

YEARLY VOLATILITY

Directing our attention to the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January 2025. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only greater price movement.

YEARLY PANIC CYCLES

Focusing on the potential for sharp movement, our Panic Cycle target, for the next period to watch is during 2029. This is beyond the peak in the next Economic Confidence Model due in 2024. Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle differs from just volatility. This can be either an outside reversal or a sharp move in only one direction. Panic Cycles can be either up or down. Watch the oscillators and the reversals to determine the best indication of the potential direction.

YEARLY FORECASTING ARRAY ANALYSIS

Our Forecast Array suggests that there is a practical likelihood of a temporary high since the market is trading below the previous Yearly's closing after making a new high. A closing below our Momentum Projection standing at 162910 will signal that we have a pullback possibly into the next turning point due in 2022 leaving 2019 as a temporary high. Yet, this market is still holding our Momentum support level resting at 133606, indicating the broader trend has not been negated at this moment.

The strongest target in the Yearly array is 2022 for a turning point ahead, at least on a closing basis. It does appear we have a choppy period starting 2022 until 2023 with each target producing the opposite direction for that 2-year period.

Keep in mind that given the dramatic decline of 34% from the last high established during 2019, that if we continue to move in the same direction after one target, then the move will not subside until the next target in time is reached. We have NOT elected any Bearish Reversals thus far to date. The first Yearly Bearish Reversal comes into play at 113030. We have a Yearly Directional Change target due the day of 2019. This lines up with a turning point so in this case we can see at least an intraday event, or a turning point based on the close. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a breakout in the same direction, not just a change in direction.

WHAT-IF ANALYSIS

Using our What-If Models, we see that we have Monthly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see a another new high penetrating 169170. These hypothetical Bearish Reversals would rest at 155110, 144620, 140630, 123830, 122660, , and a close below the previous low 155110 would tend to suggest that these Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Bearish Reversals would signal a decline is unfolding. However, if we continue to make new highs, then this WHAT-IF Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

REVERSAL SYSTEM

Utilizing our Reversal System, Using the Weekly level, the next Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 148590 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 147790. This provides a 0.53% trading range. Now moving to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 160440 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 144610. This, naturally, gives us the main broad trading range of a 9.86%.

REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |

170440 | 1 | 170450 | 1 | 172740 | 1 |
167190 | 1 | 168710 | 1 | 167240 | 1 |
165720 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
157790 | 1 | 158830 | 1 | 160440 | 1 |
----------------------------------------
147700 | 1 | 147790 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
146320 | 1 | 147420 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
146290 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
146160 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
146130 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
145970 | 1 | 145970 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
145900 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
144950 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
144610 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 144610 | 1 |
142200 | 1 | 144290 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
141450 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
141100 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
140620 | 1 | 140620 | 1 | 140620 | 1 |
140350 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
140260 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
140200 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
139370 | 1 | 140130 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
139170 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
138460 | 1 | 138740 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
136120 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
134200 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
134130 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
133120 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
132970 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
132920 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
132460 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
132350 | 2 | 132350 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
129240 | 1 | 131080 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
128030 | 1 | 128070 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
127510 | 1 | 128000 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
127500 | 2 | 127500 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
127320 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
127040 | 1 | 127290 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
126900 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
126890 | 1 | 126890 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
126780 | 1 | 126780 | 1 | 126780 | 1 |
126730 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
126720 | 1 | 126720 | 1 | 126720 | 1 |
125990 | 1 | 125990 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
123930 | 1 | 123930 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
123860 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
123570 | 1 | 123610 | 1 | 123820 | 1 |
122170 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 122650 | 1 |
122000 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
121600 | 1 | 121840 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
121040 | 1 | 121040 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
119800 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 120390 | 1 |
119740 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
119610 | 1 | 119650 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
118840 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |

RISK FACTORS

NY Gold Nearest Futures Risk Table

----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---

DAILY......... 157790 | 6.284% | 147700 | 0.511% |
WEEKLY........ 148590 | 0.087% | 147790 | 0.451% |
MONTHLY....... 160440 | 8.069% | 144610 | 2.593% |
QUARTERLY..... 179010 | 20.57% | 120140 | 19.07% |
YEARLY........ 179820 | 21.12% | 113030 | 23.86% |